e. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. from zgr123's blog
MILWAUKEE -- For about a three-minute stretch of the second half, Milwaukees Brandon Knight just could not be stopped. Adam Shaheen Youth Jersey . A quick first step to get to the hoop for a layup. A rousing dunk on the break off a high outlet pass saved by teammate Ramon Sessions. A back-breaking 3 from the wing. Knight scored 11 straight points during a stretch between the third and fourth quarters to help the Bucks erase an 18-point deficit and defeat the Orlando Magic 105-98 on Monday night. The Bucks fed off their lead guard once Knight got going. "He was attacking, finishing, finding guys and making plays for us," said Khris Middleton, who added 21 points and three crucial 3s in the fourth quarter. Maurice Harkless had 14 points to lead seven players in double figures Orlando, which got guard Victor Oladipo back after the rookie missed two games with left ankle soreness. Oladipo finished with 12 on 5-of-6 shooting off the bench. The Magic just had no answer for Knight. "I thought his aggression as far as attacking the basket was a huge plus," coach Larry Drew said. A game between two of the worst teams in the league -- the Bucks and Magic had combined for 95 losses coming into the night -- turned into an entertaining affair down the stretch that saw the Bucks snap a three-game skid. Several times early in the contest, it looked as though the Magic would hold on for their fifth road victory of the year. But the stretch run belonged to Knight, who had an emphatic answer to start the fourth quarter to answer two buckets by Oladipo that ended the third. "NBA games are extremely long and an 18-point lead in the first half doesnt mean a lot," Orlando coach Jacque Vaughn said. Knight nearly singlehandedly blew past Orlando to start the fourth. A layup with 11:21 left gave Milwaukee a 72-71 lead, its first advantage since the quarter. Then came Knights dunk. Rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo threw a high pass downcourt back to Sessions, who jumped with one arm outstretched and got the ball to the streaking Knight for the throwdown. After another missed Magic shot, Knight hurt Orlando again with a 3 from the wing for a 77-71 lead with 10:30 left. "Its real frustrating. We were playing basketball the right way. But we stopped playing team ball," said Tobias Harris, who scored all 11 of his points during a 13-0 run in the first half that allowed the Magic to build a 31-13 lead. Knights hustling play was in stark contrast to a lethargic Bucks squad that couldnt hit shots and appeared to be just standing around the hoop defensively during Orlandos early spurt. "I just wanted to come out and be aggressive, come out and be strong and attack the basket," Knight said. "We were able to get out and get a lot of easy baskets, so that got us in a good rhythm and we were able to steamroll from there. Not quite, even if Middleton added three fourth-quarter 3s to help the Bucks build its own double-digit lead. The lead swelled to 95-81 with 2:49 left before Orlando mounted its own late charge to get within three off a 3 from Jameer Nelson with 35 seconds left. But the Bucks hit their foul shots late and Orlando was hurt after Nikola Vucevic was whistled for an offensive foul with 22 seconds left. Nelson finished with 13. Sessions had 16 points and eight assists and went 6 of 6 from the line. Sessions combined with Knight to effectively lead the Bucks up-tempo attack in the second half. Even Oladipos return couldnt help Orlando. The rookie said after the game he wasnt working out or shooting for about a week because of his sore foot, so Vaughn eased Oladipo back into the rotation Monday. "I felt like I was kind of slow with my reaction time because I havent played in a while. Still no excuse," Oladipo said. "I feel like I let my team down a little bit today but Ive just got to keep growing and getting better." NOTES: The Magic fell to a league-worst 4-30 on the road. ... Vucevic finished with a double-double off 12 points and 12 rebounds. ... Knight extended his career-best streak of scoring in double-digits to 18 straight games. ... The Bucks play seven of their next eight games on the road. Tarik Cohen Youth Jersey.Heres Ralph the Dog with the crew here at TSN jumping into the James Duthie TradeCentre selfie: Happy to drop by! RT @TSN_Sports: @tsnjamesduthie: Take this Ellen. Mitchell Trubisky Bears Jersey . Osasunas Alvaro Cejudo drove the ball onto the crossbar in the fifth minute and his team squandered several long-range strikes before he was denied one-on-one by goalkeeper Jaime Jimenez in the 50th.One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Mitchell Trubisky Womens Jersey. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. 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