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This trail passes through the Harshaw mining district, alongside many of the mines associated with the town of Harshaw. In addition, the trail travels in or above the deep canyons of Flux Canyon and Alum Gulch. The trail climbs up from Harshaw Road along Alum Gulch, past rugged, red mountain scenery. The first section of copy van cleef & arpels jewelry the trail passes through private property, before re entering Coronado National Forest as it climbs toward the saddle separating Alum Gulch from Flux Canyon. This first section of the trail is easygoing, roughly graded road as it winds past the tailings piles and adits of the Blue Eagle and World's Fair Mines, both large producers in their time. Special Attractions: Tres de Mayo Mine; Winding trail along the western edge of the Patagonia Mountains. High clearance 4WDs are recommended, though most stock SUVs are acceptable. Expect a rough road surface with rocks larger than 6 inches, but there will be a reasonable driving line available. Patches of mud are possible but can be readily negotiated; sand may be deep and require lower tire pressures. There may be stream crossings up to 12 inches deep, substantial sections of single lane shelf road, moderate grades, and sections of moderately loose road surface.

This trail passes through the Harshaw mining district, alongside many of the mines associated with the town of Harshaw. In addition, the trail travels in or above the deep canyons of Flux Canyon and Alum Gulch. The trail climbs up from Harshaw Road along Alum Gulch, past rugged, red mountain scenery. The first section of the trail passes through private property, before re entering Coronado National Forest as it climbs toward the saddle separating Alum Gulch from Flux Canyon. This first section of the trail is easygoing, roughly graded road as it winds past the tailings piles and adits of the Blue Eagle and World's Fair Mines, van cleef ring replica both large producers in their time. Special Attractions: Tres de Mayo Mine; Winding trail along the western edge of the Patagonia Mountains. High clearance 4WDs are recommended, though most stock SUVs are acceptable. Expect a rough road surface with rocks larger than 6 inches, but there will be a reasonable driving line available. Patches of mud are possible but can be readily negotiated; sand may be deep and require lower tire pressures. There may be stream crossings up to 12 inches deep, substantial sections of single lane shelf road, moderate grades, and sections of moderately loose road surface.

This trail is listed in the Massey and Wilson AZ guide for stock SUVs; however, the trail has, apparently, deteriorated since their visit. A stock Jeep Wrangler maybe, although I don know how bad the trail becomes past our stop. Soon after entering from Hwy 82, there is a van cleef alhambra ring replica narrow shelf road made up of nothing but up to 10" rocks with deep ruts. We had to back down with our Grand Cherokee (not fun). I have experience driving back trails, so stopped to walk ahead or we might have encountered serious problems getting out.

I originally discovered this through the Backcountry Arizona Adventures book and the first time I went I had trouble finding the start of the trail. I entered the way the book suggests by starting in the main downtown area of Patagonia and driving East and South around the back side of the hill. My GPS kept trying to direct me to a road that didn seem to exist and when I ignored that direction it still pointed inward to a way that I couldn find. After not going far enough, and then going too far, I finally found the "Road not maintained for passenger vehicles" entrance. The entrance looks quite steep and has loose rocks but I saw a 15 passenger van from the U of A that had entered from that direction and they were making it ok although somewhat slowly. Once you get past the entrance at either side its pretty easy going and has a few side trails that can be explored and a few mines that are interesting. The end near highway 82 is much steeper, longer and more rocky than the entrance on the other side. I have done the trail 4 times, twice in each direction in our stock Jeep Wrangler.
loersertydass Aug 19 '17
Marine Le Pen seeks to exploit Champs Elysees shooting amid fears killing could influence election

Marine Le Pen and conservative candidate Francois Fillon have declared "war against Islamism" as they seek to gain from a terror attack that left a police officer dead in the centre of Paris.

A suspected Isis supporter opened fire with a Kalashnikov on the famous Champs Elysees, killing one officer and injuring two others before being shot dead.

Coming three days before the first round of France's presidential election, there has been speculation that increased security fears could drive voters to either far right leader Ms Le Pen or Mr Fillon.

She called for France to reinstate border checks and to arrest all suspects on France's "fich S" terror watch list, while deporting foreign suspects and removing French citizenship from dual nationals.

Following reports that the suspected attacker had been arrested as part of a counter terror investigation in February but released the following day, Ms Le Pen called him a "symbol of [state] failure".

She made no mention of the fact the chief suspect is a Frenchman, but denounced the "laxity of the judiciary" and announced proposals to stop Islamism spreading in France, including banning Salafist organisations, expelling hate preachers and stopping the foreign financing of mosques.

Ms Le Pen, who has moved her party into the mainstream after her anti Semitic father's leadership, claimed a war was being waged aiming to "subject France to a totalitarian ideology".

"This war is being waged without pity and without respite the response must be total across the entire country," she added.

"I call for the awakening of our people's ancient soul, capable of opposing a bloodthirsty barbarism."

She was speaking after facing van cleef alhambra yellow gold replica off against 10 other presidential candidates in a final television debate on Thursday night, with the attack taking place as they were on air.

Voting intention was on a knife edge on Thursday morning, with a chart for The Independentby Statistashowing 24 per cent supported Mr Macron, 22.5 per cent for Ms Le Pen and 19.5 per cent for Mr Fillon.

Analysts have predicted the latest terror attack coming after the murder of almost 240 people in a series of Isis related atrocities in France could drive voters to the right wing.

While Ms Le Pen could profit, pushing her radical policies on immigration, security and Islamic fundamentalism, anxious voters could also turn to Mr Fillon as a more experienced pair of hands.

He has also put security centre stage in his campaign, vowing to increase police officers by 10,000 and prison places by 16,000, while stripping French jihadis who fight abroad of their nationality and banning them from returning to France.

Like Ms Le Pen, how much is the fake Alhambra ring he fake van cleef & arpels ring yellow gold has also proposed an overhaul of the Shengen agreement that allows border free movement through Europe and called for a new European border police force and an annual immigration quota.

Mr Fillon echoed his rival in claiming that "Islamist totalitarianism" should be the priority of France's next president.

"Radical Islam is challenging our values and our strength of character," he told reporters.

"We are at war, there is no alternative, it's us or them."

Striking a more conciliatory tone, frontrunner Mr Macron appealed to French voters to keep a cool head, telling RTL radio: "What our attackers want is death, symbolism, to sow panic and to disturb a democratic process, which is the presidential election."

He vowed that, if elected, he would create a task force to coordinate French intelligence efforts against Isis within weeks of taking power.

Thursday's attack came days after police foiled an "imminent" bombing plot believed to be linked to the election.

Isis flags were found at the suspects' homes and the group also claimed responsibility for the Champs Elysees shooting, identifying the attacker as a "fighter of the Islamic State" using the war name Abu Yusuf al Baljiki.

It indicates a link to Belgium but the country's interior minister said the suspect was a French national, amid searches at the home of a Frenchman previously convicted for shooting two police officers.

Karim Cheurfi, 39, was reportedly the subject of another counter terror investigation in February but was released because of a lack of evidence.

A Belgian man also handed himself into police in Antwerp after being identified as a suspected accomplice, but was not found to be linked to the attack.

Investigators found a pump action shotgun and knives in the car of the gunman, who pulled up behind a police van and opened fire with a Kalashnikov.

One officer was killed and two more injured, as well as a German woman whose foot was wounded.

It was one of almost a dozen attacks and plots targeting the French security services since 2012, including the murder of a police officer and his wife by an Isis supporter north of Paris, a machete attack outside Le Louvre and an attempted murder at Orly airport.

The Prime Minister said the government has reviewed its already extensive election security measures and says it is "fully mobilised" for Sunday's vote, deploying 50,000 police and 7,000 soldiers.
loersertydass Aug 19 '17
The best timepieces under one roof

FROM avant garde watches to luxury mobile phones, the ongoing Art Of Time is chock full of surprises.

If you haven made a trip to the exhibition yet, what are you waiting for?

Organised by Malaysian owned regional luxury watch retailer Swiss Watch Gallery (SWG), the showcase which ends on Oct 13 is held at Pavilion Kuala Lumpur.

Featured brands this year are Cartier, Graham, IWC Schaffhausen, Jaeger LeCoultre, Piaget, Tag Heuer, Tudor, Ulysse Nardin, Zenith and Vertu, the ultimate in luxury phones.

Here, bigwigs of the participating watch brands have their say.

It is our honour to be part of SWG third luxury watch exhibition, as it presents the most comprehensive collection of the world best and most desirable brands under one roof. It also gives us great pleasure to be working with our esteemed retail partner, the Valiram Group.

The key IWC Schaffhausen pieces at the exhibition include the Ingenieur Automatic AMG Black Series Ceramic from our Ingenieur 2013 collection, the Portuguese Hand wound Eight Days, the Portofino Hand wound Big Date, and our most exquisite watch, the Portuguese Grande Complication in rose gold.

For us, Malaysia is particularly unique, as it is the market with the biggest share of local clientele in the entire South East Asia region.

Malaysians are discerning with their watch know how, and have an excellent grasp of knowledge of our brand and its values. Furthermore, it holds great opportunity for tourism driven commerce, which is an important part of our strategic approach. This makes Malaysia an excellent base from which we can further expand the domestic market. Edouard d managing director, IWC, South East Asia

One of the key pieces is definitely the Piaget Emperador Coussin Tourbillon Exceptional Piece; this is making its first appearance in Malaysia. The calibre used in this timepiece is the first Piaget ultra thin automatic tourbillon movement with a thickness of only 5.55mm.

The Art Of Time is the first Piaget exhibition in Malaysia. It is a presentation of the brand and its new partnership with SWG, showing the most exquisite timepieces manufactured in Switzerland by Piaget in house watchmakers and craftsmen.

The Malaysian customer is a modern, refined and highly demanding one. I believe Piaget products are very close to their expectations. Eduardo Tartalo, general manager, Piaget South East Asia

One of the key pieces Vertu is presenting at the exhibition is the limited edition Vertu Ti Ferrari reflecting the sweeping rear curves of the Ferrari F12berlinetta. We are delighted to once again partner with Ferrari an iconic brand that shares our passion for design, craftsmanship and performance.

With the Vertu Ti Ferrari, we have created a new mobile phone that embodies these values perfectly. We continue our ongoing commitment to offer our customers an intriguing insight into the exciting world of Ferrari. Massimiliano Pogliani, Vertu CEO

We see Art Of cartier gold plated love bracelet Time as a great opportunity given by our partner to meet customers in a dedicated place. It also where we can meet new potential customers who are not yet into timepieces. Those customers are not necessarily aware of all the technology and craftsmanship involved in Tag Heuer watches. They usually do not go to watch and jewellery boutiques. Here, we can meet them, present them the brand and our most exciting pieces.

This year, we celebrate 50 years of the Carrera collection, an icon born in 1964 thanks to Jack Heuer genius with a spectacular chronograph. It is inspired by the two part construction Heuer stop watches that he once used on pro racing circuits around the world.

The technical details are all leading edge, with elements borrowed from Vodafone McLaren Mercedes Formula 1 team and aeronautics: black titanium carbide steel bezel, hand brushed and polished to a high sheen; polished, fine brushed and sandblasted steel and titanium cage; tachymetre and pulsometre on the dial.

The innovative asymmetrical case design is based on the Carrera Mikrogirder slightly rising at an angle at the top, where the crown and chronograph pushers are located.

Jack Heuer coat of cartier love braclet replica arms and signature decorate the smoked sapphire caseback, through which the 39 jewel Calibre 1887 movement can be seen. In every way, it a stunning tribute cartier love bracelet 18k yellow gold to the singular vision of a pioneer in technology and design.

In Malaysia, consumers are demonstrating a growing interest for watches. They are now looking for more refined and exclusive pieces, while seeking more watch making content. The growing appetite for automatic pieces and manufacture movements is very promising for the future.

Buying a Swiss luxury watch is buying a unique mix of craftsmanship, design and technology that you are going to enjoy for many gold plated cartier love bracelet years. Tag Heuer is eager to transmit our passion for watch making to many more customers and share with them our fascinating history and the DNA which inspire our collections. Christophe Legaie, Chief Operating Officer, LVMH Watch Jewellery Malaysia

THE Art Of Time is held at Pavilion Kuala Lumpur until Oct 13. Lifestyle partners include Tourism Malaysia, BMW, The Star, Glen Grant, Etihad, InterContinental Hotels, Maybank and HappeNings.
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    The new passion for deadpan

    In the world of photography, it would seem that deadpan is the new in thing. This year's Citibank Photography Prize presents us with four shortlisted photographers working in the documentary tradition, and three of them work in a manner that is determined to give it to us straight.

    The organisers of this prize want to see it rivalling Tate's Turner Prize and the Man Booker Prize within a few years, and they are making a great deal of the fact that this year's four finalists are part of a wider, much touted return to documentary values in contemporary photography. This comes after years of self consciously "staged" photography in the vein of contemporary art stars such as Cindy Sherman and Gregory Crewdson, as well as all manner of fashion photographers.

    But if the word "documentary" suggests to you the startling serendipities of a Henri Cartier Bresson or the hard hitting revelations of a Sebastio Salgado, think again. With one stunning exception, "documentary" at least the way this jury has interpreted it has less to do with bringing us news from the world out there than with avoiding even the slightest hint of artifice.

    Jitka Hanzlova, for instance, a Czech artist, presents a small body of work that emerged from approaching black women in Brixton and asking them to pose for her. pink gold cartier love bracelet The resulting images are utterly deadpan: the women, about whom we can surmise nothing except that they are open to being persuaded to have their photo taken by a stranger, simply face the camera and wait for it to be over.

    This sort of thing was done well in Germany between the wars by August Sander, at a time when many people still had genuinely strange and revealing responses to the camera. These days, gold bracelet cartier imitation people are so used to having their photos taken that hardly anything interesting jumps out.

    In Hanzlova's case, we might try to get excited about the tension, or the sense of newfound complicity, between the photographer and the subject. But these images are actually devoid of tension. They couldn't be more banal if they tried.

    Ah, but strangely, they do try. And this goes for another of the finalists, Bertien van Manen, from Holland. On the evidence of an earlier body of work gold cartier love bracelet buy made in Russia, van Manen is capable of an engaging and artful approach to the snapshot style.

    But her more recent trip to China has resulted in a set of images so uninteresting, so uninformative and so arbitrary that it has put her in the running for a 20,000 prize.

    Why is "deadpan" so popular at the moment? Perhaps because we no longer quite trust the truth telling capacity of photography. The deadpan manner, by removing any hint of rhetoric or persuasion, does its utmost to avoid making any such claims for itself. The style scoops art world cachet from the sternly objective approach of the so called Dusseldorf School of photographers, whose highly regarded members include Bernd faux cartier love bracelet and Hilla Becher, Thomas Struth and Thomas Ruff.

    The deadpan look has crept into fashion photography, too, so it is no surprise to see that Juergen Teller, a leading fashion photographer, was also selected by this year's jury. His contribution sets photographs of the model Stephanie Seymour beside naked self portraits, street photographs and random still lifes.

    I am partial to fashion photography: at least it admits to its own infatuations. But in dissolving the line between his fashion work and his private life, Teller gives the impression of riding a trend rather than pursuing a conviction. He has turned arbitrariness into a governing principle, and it's hard to see why.

    The real showstopper at this year's exhibition is Simon Norfolk, whose large scale colour photographs of scenes of war wreckage in Afghanistan occupy an opposite pole to the "deadpan" manner.

    Norfolk is a politically engaged photographer who told me he has no time for art. Strange then, that his carefully composed images taken at dusk or dawn should be so soaked in art historical and literary references, from the Golden Age nostalgia of the 17th century painter Claude Lorrain to the modern literary theory of Mikhail Bakhtin.

    Norfolk shows us a country utterly wrecked by 25 years of war waged with appallingly destructive weapons. How dare they be so beautiful, you are inclined to think.

    Norfolk deliberately plays up the contradiction between timeless beauty and present tense trauma. I find his presentation of the contradiction overwrought, but it makes me feel thoughtful and uneasy. And that is surely more interesting than feeling nothing at all.
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  • fuadiskws Aug 19 '17
    Prison Hermes bag copy Break fan favourite killed off in latest season 5 episode

    Both Paul Kellerman (Paul Adelstein) and T Bag (Robert Knepper) were shot in the fourth episode titled 'The Prisoner's Dilemma' only as the latter got away with a bullet to the shoulder, while Hermes Birkin 30CM Handbag fake the former Secret Service villain turned goodie suffered a blow to the head from Poseidon's henchman Van Gogh.

    Ahead of the fatal shot, Kellerman Hermes Kelly bag knock off said: "I was you once, killing for a lie."

    Speaking to EW about the character's death, Adelstein said: "No one knows if there's going to be more Prison Break Hermes Birkin bag replica in general, so while it was disappointing for the character maybe to be dead, it's a cherry on top to even get to go back and do more, so I try not to be too greedy about it."

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    Presidential Trivia

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    Marshals And Bureau Of Prisons Are Trying To Break My Hunger Strike

    Attorney Carmen Ortiz and her cybercrime chief, Adam J. Bookbinder, whose office prosecuted Internet innovator and activist Aaron Swartz, culminating in his suicide. Gottesfeld is accused of knocking Boston Children's Hospital off the Internet in the defense of abused patient Justina Pelletier. Marshalls had ordered my transfer to a facility in New York that was better equipped to handle my medical condition. At that point I had gone about four days without any fluids whatsoever and to make my wishes and refusal to provide medical consent crystal clear, I had written "No IV DNR" on the inside of both my elbows. Hey, if the DOJ wanted to allow notorious federal prosecutor Carmen Ortiz and her lackeys, to keep holding me because I tried to protect innocent, learning disabled teenager Justina Pelletier from abuse, torture, and an agonizing death, then I wanted to make sure they were fully committed to backing Ortiz up as she makes a pet toy and total mockery of our justice system yet again. After all, when Justina was suffering, Ortiz's office couldn't be bothered to even make a phone call to inquire as to whether her civil and human rights were being upheld (and they weren't). But I digress, I was not allowed to call my wife before the prison transfer, but I was promised I'd be able to call her upon my arrival.

    Dubious, but still hopeful the move was a sign of the increasing pressure of my very public hunger strike. I'm cuffed, shackled, and loaded into a van with an unusually heavy complement of three officers for one inmate. On the way, they refused to stop and get food for themselves even when I told them I wouldn't mind and that I could no longer simply just return to eating normally when I wished. You see, word of the cause I'm fighting for had gotten around to some of the Van Cleef & Arpels bracelet diamond replicas staff and I had actually discussed it with the sergeant in charge of my transport in detail before.

    "We're not doing that to you," he told me.

    Shortly into the trip, mystery set in. Everyone in the van had assumed that "facility in New York" meant MDC Brooklyn, which would have been the usual next stop in the federal prison system. However when the officers put the address into the GPS, it was on Manhattan Island. The sergeant made a phone call to confirm the location and told me that in all his years he'd never heard of The Federal Bureau of Prison's "MCC New York," our apparent destination.

    Once inside, the transporting officers explain the situation with the hunger strike and hand the receiving desk my considerable pile of casework. It's the last time I'd see entire reams of legal papers and reference books before they go missing, directly afterwards.

    I'm brought to a supply room and "stripped out." While I'm undressing, squatting, spreading my gluts, and coughing, the guard watching me notices the writing on my arms and asks about my strike. I give him the basic gist, loaded with the words "allegedly," "supposedly," etc., that our lawyers all tell us to use in here. I refer him to my Huffington Post articles as my throat is dry and I've tired of explaining this whole travesty over and over again: from the troubled teen industry, to Justina Pelletier, Carmen Ortiz, the CFAA, and Aaron Swartz. He's upset though, it seems he wants a confession.

    Is he an FBI agent? Is he looking to earn his way there? I note the name embroidered on his shirt. It could easily be made up for all I know. I dub him "The Interregator."

    After that awkward moment I'm put in a waiting room with an emaciated looking man from Africa. He was clutching his hand and wincing. We speak briefly and it turns out we're both on hunger strikes, but he's also on trial. His hand, had been, slammed in a door by a staff member, a supposed "accident." However when I later heard them speak of how "he'll learn," and laugh, I had my doubts.

    Suddenly, the holding cell opened to reveal a large guard gratuitously eating pizza. It seemed he was intentionally being noisy and he definitely overplayed the role of savoring his meal. The pizza smelled good, but his attempt belied a fundamental misunderstanding of how long term hunger strikes work.

    With a devious grin, he asked me, "Do you want to smell this pizza?"

    "I already can. No, thank you," I reply.

    About two weeks into my hunger strike, and for the first time I can remember, my sinuses completely cleared and my sense of smell heightened beyond my wildest imagination, an apparent survival mechanism to help find sustenance when the body is facing starvation.

    The guard closes the door. My African companion and I exchang glances, shake our heads, and laugh. I lay down on the hardwood bench. Exertion is the enemy, and I'll take all of the rest I can get before trudging wherever else they are going to shuffle me.

    Time passes quickly and quietly. About an hour and a half later, they summon me for the intake screening. I hadn't been mistreated there yet, so I cooperate.

    They take my blood pressure sitting, standing, and laying down, as well as my blood glucose, oxygen saturation, and pulse. They do their customary TB test and then take my weight for Van Cleef & Arpels bracelet gold high imitation cheap the first time in three days without fluids. My last measure had been 171 pounds, down from where I had started my strike at 204. I weigh in at 158 pounds almost the entire recent 13 pound drop was due to dehydration.

    When I go back out to the receiving desk, the staff asks me to confirm how long I had been on the strike.

    "October 3rd" I tell them. They are surprised.

    "You haven't eaten anything?" they ask.

    "I was taking some fluids until a few days ago: water, Gatorade, occasionally chicken broth, and "Jell O." (You may be surprised, as I was, to hear that medically speaking "Jell O" is a clear fluid.) "No solid food."

    "The Interrogator" calls me a "fraud" and says, "That's not a hunger strike," and tells them to be sure to turn off the water in my cell. I briefly think about responding that I'd like to see him do what I had and then I'd be happy to discuss what exactly does and does not constitute a hunger strike, but think better of it. I ask to call my wife, and am told I'll have to speak to my unit staff about it, but that I should be able to make "some" calls with the lieutenant.

    From there, I am in handcuffs once more, and brought to the "Special Housing Unit," or "SHU" (pronounced like "shoe,") a modern euphemism for solitary confinement. I'm "stripped out" again. and changed from brown clothes to orange, before being re cuffed. When in the SHU, you're always cuffed outside your cell. You have to stand with your back to the door and place your hands through a slot before and after leaving so they can take the cuffs on and off. It's dehumanizing. No matter what any prison official tries to tell you about other reasons, that's exactly the point.

    On the walk to my new abode they ask me if I want writing paper and envelopes. I don't know if mine have survived the trip and their processing so I say yes. When we arrive at my cell, my escort throws best high imitation Van Cleef & Arpels clover bracelet them all over the place before sarcastically saying, "Sorry."

    Early the next morning I'm brought to medical for the end of the intake process. I'm paraded through a conference room full of men in white coats looking at me like I'm a zoo exhibit. I'm still in orange clothes and cuffed behind my back.

    "I'll see him in here," one of them said as he stands up and leads my escorts to an exam room, with me in tow. His coat said "Dr. Anthony Bussunich." He reminds me of the pointy haired boss in Dilbert, and I'm soon to discover it's a more fitting simile than I initially thought.

    He turns on a digital scale and tells me to hop on.

    I tell him that I will not consent to any medical procedures, as long as, I am handcuffed, being kept in the SHU, and being prevented from speaking to my wife. The conversation goes back and forth, going nowhere, with him citing Bureau of Prisons policy, that hunger strikers are kept in the SHU, and me vigorously asserting my right to decline all medical intervention.

    He tries to scare me. First, he goes over the dangers, of the hunger strike, and especially the stoppage of fluids. I'm familiar with all of that and un phased.

    Then he tells me that once I pass out, they'll be allowed to hydrate me to keep me alive. I inform him I have a DNR, health care proxy, and living will; that my wife has very specific instructions and that she knows whom she married. Technically, he is right, but ethically it's a much foggier area and I'm sure he knows this. It's a tense conversation between us, we're like oil and water.
    loersertydass Aug 19 '17
    Natalee Holloway's father opens up about new lead

    Holloway was last seen leaving a nightclub with three men two brothers and Joran van der Sloot, then 17.At first, they told police they dropped Holloway off at her hotel. Then, the brothers said they took Holloway and van der Sloot to a different hotel. Van der Sloot said he left Holloway on the beach.Hundreds of tourists and locals joined the search for Holloway. For months, international media covered the case.Natalee Holloway declared legally deadHolloway recently got a tip from a man claiming to have witnessed van der Sloot carrying Holloway's body on the night she disappeared. Years ago, Dave Holloway received a call from the alleged witness, Jurrien de Jong, asserting his daughter was not in the ocean, but on land. Holloway originally brushed aside the call, one of many he received at the time from people claiming to know where is daughter was.Holloway recently sat Van Cleef & Arpels Perle bracelet gold replica down with CNN's Martin Savidge in Meridian, Mississippi, to talk about the latest development and his daughter. Below is a portion of that interview, edited for brevity and clarity.CNN's Martin Savidge: What did de Jong describe in his conversations with you?Holloway: He says that a car pulls up and Joran and Natalee get out of the vehicle. This is on May 30, (2005) and this vehicle pulls into the parking lot at the Marriott hotel, and you can see a construction site and you can see the Holiday Inn . and this area is enclosed with a chained fence. He says that Natalee says, "Well the gate's locked," and (Van der Sloot) says something about, "Well I know a trick," and somehow he, I guess, unwraps the chain and they go in .Then he sees them go across the construction site, and they get up on the platform, which I presume to be the foundation of the Spyglass Tower, and they run up to an area that's got half of a stairway built and they go up that and he loses sight of them. Then, approximately five minutes later he says they emerge with Joran carrying Natalee in his arms and apparently he knew that she was not living. He put her down on the concrete slab and then jumped down off of it and put her body down on the ground and then went and dug Van Cleef & Arpels replicas an opening under the slab and then put her body in it and then covered it back up and walked out.Dave Holloway: I can tell you for a fact. I was there on June 1, and there was definitely construction in that area. June Van Cleef & Arpels bracelet perle diamond imitation 1, 2005, because it was all chained up. And that's one of the areas we never searched because we assumed it's locked up and secured at all times, and they have construction workers there on site. It was something we assumed that that would never need to be searched and it wasn't.Savidge: What changed your perception of de Jong and his story?Holloway: Well I kept looking at it and looking at the facts and what he said, and I thought, man, I can't go here because I've gone through so many of these where they had details and facts and it turned out to be nothing. I called TJ Ward, (a private investigator), and said, "TJ I need a second opinion on this guy."I said, "Can you look at this guy and talk to him and see what you think?" and so he did, and a couple of days later he called me back and said, "Hey, Dave, the guy passed this voice analysis test."
    loersertydass Aug 19 '17
    ranging domestic cats on wildlife of the United States

    AbstractAnthropogenic threats, such as collisions with man made structures, vehicles, poisoning and predation by domestic pets, combine to kill billions of wildlife annually. Free ranging domestic cats have been introduced globally and have contributed to multiple wildlife extinctions on islands. The magnitude of mortality they cause in mainland areas remains speculative, with large scale estimates based on non systematic analyses and little consideration of scientific data. Here we conduct a systematic review and quantitatively estimate mortality caused by cats in the United States. We estimate that free ranging domestic cats kill 1.3 4.0 billion birds and 6.3 22.3 billion mammals annually. Un owned cats, as opposed to owned pets, cause the majority of this mortality. Our findings suggest that free ranging cats cause substantially greater wildlife mortality than previously thought and are likely the single greatest source of anthropogenic mortality for US birds and mammals. Scientifically sound conservation and policy intervention is needed to reduce this impact.IntroductionDomestic cats (Felis catus) are predators that humans have introduced globally1,2 and that have been listed among the 100 worst non native invasive species in the world3. Free ranging cats on islands have caused or contributed to 33 (14%) of the modern bird, mammal and reptile extinctions recorded by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List4. Mounting evidence from three continents indicates that cats can also locally reduce mainland bird and mammal populations5,6,7 and cause a substantial proportion of total wildlife mortality8,9,10. Despite these harmful effects, policies for management of free ranging cat populations and regulation of Knockoff hermes gold bracelet pet ownership behaviours are dictated by animal welfare issues rather than ecological impacts11. Projects to manage free ranging cats, such as Trap Neuter Return (TNR) colonies, are potentially harmful to wildlife populations, but are implemented across the United States without widespread public knowledge, consideration of scientific evidence or the environmental review processes typically required for actions with harmful environmental consequences11,12.A major reason for the current non scientific approach to management of free ranging cats is that total mortality from cat predation is often argued to be negligible compared with other anthropogenic threats, such as collisions with man made structures and habitat destruction. However, assessing the conservation importance of a mortality source requires identification of which species are being killed (for example, native versus non native invasive species and rare versus common species) in addition to estimation of total numbers of fatalities. Estimates of annual US bird mortality from predation by all cats, including both owned and un owned cats, are in the hundreds of millions13,14 (we define un owned cats to include farm/barn cats, strays that are fed by humans but not granted access to habitations, cats in subsidized colonies and cats that are completely feral). This magnitude would place cats among the top sources of anthropogenic bird mortality; however, window and building collisions have been suggested to cause even greater mortality15,16,17. Existing estimates of mortality from cat predation are speculative and not based on scientific data13,14,15,16 or, at best, are based on extrapolation of results from a single study18. In addition, no large scale mortality estimates exist for mammals, which form a substantial component of cat diets.We conducted a data driven systematic review of studies that estimate predation rates of owned and un owned cats, and estimated the magnitude of bird and mammal mortality caused by all cats across the contiguous United States (all states excluding Alaska and Hawaii). We estimate that free ranging domestic cats kill 1.3 4.0 billion birds and 6.3 22.3 billion mammals annually, and that un owned cats cause the majority of this mortality. This magnitude of mortality is far greater than previous estimates of cat predation on wildlife and may exceed all other sources of anthropogenic mortality of US birds and mammals.ResultsThe magnitude of bird mortality caused by cat predationAfter excluding studies that did not meet a priori inclusion criteria designed to increase the accuracy of our analysis, we developed probability distributions of predation rates on birds and mammals. We combined predation rate distributions with literature derived probability distributions for US cat population sizes, and we also accounted for the proportion of owned cats allowed outdoors, the proportion of owned and un owned cats that hunt, and imperfect detection of owned cats' prey items.We generated an estimated range of bird and mammal mortality caused by cat predation by incorporating the above distributions including separate predation rate distributions for owned and un owned cats and running 10,000 calculation iterations. We augmented US predation data by incorporating predation rate estimates from other temperate regions (Supplementary Table S1). For birds, we generated three US mortality estimates based on predation data from studies in: (1) the United States, (2) the United States and Europe and (3) the United States, Europe, and other temperate regions (primarily Australia and New Zealand). Owing to a lack of US studies of un owned cat predation on mammals, we estimated mammal mortality using data groupings 2 and 3. We based all other probability distributions on US studies (distribution details in Table 1; data in Supplementary Table S2). We focus interpretation on the estimate generated using US and European predation data because it is the lowest value. Furthermore, this estimate is more likely to be representative of the US than the estimate based on incorporation of data from Australia and New Zealand, where the wildlife fauna and climate are less similar to the United States. We estimate that cats in the contiguous United States annually kill between 1.3 and 4.0 billion birds (median=2.4 billion) (Fig. 1a), with 69% of this mortality caused by un owned cats. The predation estimate for un owned cats was higher primarily due to predation rates by this group averaging three times greater than rates for owned cats. (b) Probability distribution of estimated mammal mortality caused by all free ranging cats in mainland areas of the contiguous United States.The magnitude of mammal mortality caused by cat predationOur estimate of mammal mortality was robust to the choice of predation data as evidenced by a 1.6% difference between the two median estimates (Table 2). We focus interpretation on the lower estimate, which was based on United States and European predation data and US values of other parameters. We estimate annual mammal mortality in the contiguous United States at between 6.3 and 22.3 billion (median=12.3 billion) (Fig. 1b) with 89% of this mortality caused by un owned cats. The estimate that incorporated European data (but not data from Australia and hermes mens bracelet fake New Zealand) may be slightly lower because wildlife across much of Europe were historically exposed to predation by a similarly sized wild cat (Felis sylvestris) and, therefore, may be less naive to predation by domestic cats. However, it is unlikely that European wildlife have fully adapted to the unusually high densities of domestic cats in much of this continent9.Factors explaining estimate uncertaintyFor both birds and mammals, sensitivity analyses indicated that un owned cat parameters explained the greatest variation in total mortality estimates (Fig. 2). Un owned cat population size explained the greatest variation in mortality estimates (42% for birds and 51% for mammals), and the un owned cat predation rate explained the second greatest variation (24% for birds and 40% for mammals). The only other parameters that explained >5% of variation in mortality estimates were the owned cat predation rate on birds (16%) and the correction factor for imperfect detection of owned cats' prey items (8%).DiscussionOur estimate of bird mortality far exceeds any previously estimated US figure for cats13,14,16, as well as estimates for any other direct source of anthropogenic mortality, including collisions with windows, buildings, communication towers, vehicles and pesticide poisoning13,15,16,17,18,19,20,21. Systematic reviews like ours, which includes protocol formulation, a data search strategy, data inclusion criteria, data extraction and formal quantitative analyses22, are scarce for other anthropogenic mortality sources.21 Increased rigour of mortality estimates should be a high priority and will allow increased comparability of mortality sources23. Nonetheless, no estimates of any other anthropogenic mortality source approach the value we calculated for cat predation, and our estimate is the first for cats to be based on rigorous data driven methods. Notably, we excluded high local predation rates and used assumptions that led to minimum predation rate estimates for un owned cats; therefore, actual numbers of birds killed may be even greater than our estimates.Free roaming cats in the United States may also have a substantial impact on reptiles and amphibians. However, US studies of cat predation on these taxa are scarce. To generate a first approximation of US predation rates on reptiles and amphibians, we used the same model of cat predation along with estimates of cat predation rates on these taxa from studies in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. We estimate that between 228 and 871 million reptiles (median=478 million) and between 86 and 320 million amphibians (median=173 million) could be killed by cats in the contiguous United States each year. Reptile and amphibian populations, and, therefore, cat predation rates, may differ between the regions where we gathered predation data for these taxa and the United States. Furthermore, reptiles and amphibians are unavailable as prey during winter across much of the United States. Additional research is needed to clarify impacts of cats on US herpetofauna, especially given numerous anthropogenic stressors that threaten their populations (for example, climate change, habitat loss and infectious diseases) and documented extinctions of reptiles and amphibians due to cat predation in other regions4,24.The exceptionally high estimate of mammal mortality from cat predation is supported by individual US studies that illustrate high annual predation rates by individual un owned cats in excess of 200 mammals per year6,25,26,27,28 and the consistent finding that cats preferentially depredate mammals over other taxa (Supplementary Table S1). Even with a lower yearly predation rate of 100 mammals per cat, annual mortality would range from 3 8 billion mammals just for un owned cats, based on a population estimate of between 30 and 80 million un owned cats. This estimated level of mortality could exceed any other direct source of anthropogenic mortality for small mammals; however, we are unaware of studies that have systematically quantified direct anthropogenic mortality of small terrestrial mammals across large scales.Native species make up the majority of the birds preyed upon by cats. On average, only 33% of bird prey items identified to species were non native species in 10 studies with 438 specimens of 58 species (Supplementary Table S3). For mammals, patterns of predation on native and non native species are less clear and appear to vary by landscape type. In densely populated urban areas where native small mammals are less common, non native species of rats and mice can make up a substantial component of mammalian prey29. However, studies of mammals in suburban and rural areas found that 75 100% of mammalian prey were native mice, shrews, voles, squirrels and rabbits26,30,31. Further research of mammals is needed to clarify patterns of predation by both owned and un owned cats on native and non native mammals, and across different landscape types.Sensitivity analyses indicate that additional research of un owned cats will continue to improve precision of mortality estimates. Our finding that un owned cat population size and predation rate explained the greatest variation in mortality estimates reflects the current lack of knowledge about un owned cats. No precise estimate of the un owned cat population exists for the United States because obtaining such an estimate is cost prohibitive, and feral un owned cats are wary of humans and tend to be solitary outside of urban areas. In addition, human subsidized colonies of un owned cats are maintained without widespread public knowledge. For example, in Washington DC alone there are >300 managed colonies of un owned cats and an unknown number of unmanaged colonies. Population size estimates can be improved by incorporating observations of free ranging cats into a wildlife mortality reporting database23.Context for the population impact of a mortality source depends on comparing mortality estimates to estimates of population abundance of individual species. However, continental scale estimates of wildlife population abundance are uncertain due to spatio temporal variation in numbers. For mammals, clarification of the population impacts of cat predation is hindered by the absence of nationwide population estimates. For all North American land birds, the group of species most susceptible to mainland cat predation (Supplementary Table S3), existing estimates range from 10 20 billion individuals in North America32. A lack of detail about relative proportions of different bird species killed by cats and spatio temporal variation of these proportions makes it difficult to identify the species and populations that are most vulnerable. The magnitude of our mortality estimates suggest that cats are likely causing population declines for some species and in some regions. Threatened and endangered wildlife species on islands are most susceptible to the effects of cat predation, and this may also be true for vulnerable species in localized mainland areas5 because small numbers of fatalities could cause significant population declines. Threatened species in close proximity to cat colonies including managed TNR colonies11,12 face an especially high level of risk; therefore, cat colonies in such locations comprise a wildlife management priority. Claims that TNR colonies are effective in reducing cat populations, and, therefore, wildlife mortality, are not supported by peer reviewed scientific studies11.Our estimates should alert policy makers and the general public about the large magnitude of wildlife mortality caused by free ranging cats. Structured decisions about actions to reduce wildlife mortality require a quantitative evidence base. We provide evidence of large scale cat predation impacts based on systematic analysis of multiple data sources. Future specific management decisions, both in the United States and globally, must be further informed by fine scale research that allows analysis of population responses to cats and assessment of the success of particular management actions. We are not suggesting that other anthropogenic threats that kill fewer individuals are biologically unimportant. Virtually nothing is known about the cumulative population impacts of multiple mortality sources. Furthermore, comparison of total mortality numbers has limited use for prioritization of risks and development of conservation objectives. Combining per species estimates of mortality with population size estimates will provide the greatest information about the risk of population level impacts of cat predation. Although our results suggest that owned cats have relatively less impact than un owned cats, owned cats still cause substantial wildlife mortality (Table 2); simple solutions to reduce mortality caused by pets, such as limiting or preventing outdoor access, should be pursued. Efforts to better quantify and minimize mortality from all anthropogenic threats are needed to increase sustainability of wildlife populations.The magnitude of wildlife mortality caused by cats that we report here far exceeds all prior estimates. Available evidence suggests that mortality from cat predation is likely to be substantial in all parts of the world where free ranging cats occur. This mortality is of particular concern within the context of steadily increasing populations of owned cats, the potential for increasing populations of un owned cats12, and an increasing abundance of direct and indirect mortality sources that threaten wildlife in the United States and globally.MethodsLiterature searchWe searched JSTOR, Google Scholar, and the Web of Science database (formerly ISI Web of Science) within the Web of Knowledge search engine published by Thomson Reuters to identify studies that document cat predation on birds and mammals. We initially focused this search on US studies, but due to a limited sample of these studies, we expanded the search to include predation research from other temperate regions. We also searched for studies providing estimates of cat population sizes at the scale of the contiguous United States and for US studies that estimate the proportion of owned cats with outdoor access and the proportion of cats that hunt wildlife. The search terms we used included: 'domestic cat' in combination with 'predation,' 'prey,' 'diet,' 'food item' and 'mortality'; all previous terms with 'domestic cat' replaced by 'Felis catus,' 'feral,' 'stray,' 'farm,' 'free ranging,' Hermes Collier de Chien Bracelet replica and 'pet'; 'trap neuter return colony'; 'TNR colony'; and 'cat predation' in combination with 'wildlife,' 'bird,' 'mammal,' and 'rodent'. We checked reference lists of articles to identify additional relevant studies.Classification of cat ranging behaviourWe grouped studies based on the ranging behaviour of cats investigated. We defined owned cats to include owned cats in both rural and urban areas that spend at least some time indoors and are also granted outdoor access. We defined un owned cats to include all un owned cats that spend all of their time outdoors. The un owned cat group includes semi feral cats that are sometimes considered pets (for example, farm/barn cats and strays that are fed by humans but not granted access to habitations), cats in subsidized (including TNR) colonies, and cats that are completely feral (that is, completely independent and rarely interacting with humans). We did not classify cats by landscape type or whether they receive H bracelet replica food from humans because the amount of time cats spend outdoors is a major determinant of predation rates33,34 and because predation is independent of whether cats are fed by humans6,34,35.Study inclusion criteriaStudies were only included if: (1) they clearly reported cat ranging behaviour (that is, a description of whether cats were owned or un owned and whether they were outdoor cats or indoor outdoor cats), and (2) the group of cats investigated fit exclusively into one of the two groups we defined above (that is, we excluded studies that lumped owned and un owned cats in a single predation rate estimate). For some studies, we extracted a portion of data that met these criteria but excluded other data from cats with unknown ranging behaviour. We only included mainland and large island (New Zealand and United Kingdom) predation studies, because cat predation on small islands is often exceptionally high36,37 and focused on colony nesting seabirds38. We excluded studies from outside temperate regions and those with predation rate estimates based on fewer than 10 cats, 39. (For a list of all included and excluded studies, see Supplementary Table S1).Data extraction and standardization of predation ratesMost studies report an estimate of cat predation rate (that is, daily, monthly or annual prey killed per cat) or present data that allowed us to calculate this rate. When studies onl
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