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Netflix pumps up new thriller
Here's an exclusive first look at the Netflix original series, Bloodline, premiering with all 13 episodes in all Netflix territories in March. Created and executive produced by Todd A. Kessler, Daniel Zelman, and Glenn Kessler and set in the Florida Keys, the series stars: Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Ben Mendelsohn ("The Dark Knight Rises"), Linda Cardellini ("Mad Men"), Sam Shepard ("The Right Stuff"), Sissy Spacek ("Carrie"), Norbert Leo Butz ("Dan in Real Life"), Jamie McShane ("Sons of Anarchy"), Jacinda Barrett ("Suits") and Enrique Murciano ("Without a Trace").
In Bloodline, when the eldest brother and black sheep of the Rayburn family returns home, he exposes the emotional demons that lie at the core of the family, threatening to tear them apart.
After scoring major hits with original shows like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black, Netflix plans to deliver its next batch of originals soon. The big budget historical epic Marco Polo arrives next month, and the family drama meets psychological thriller Bloodline will become available in March.
But while we provided some details about Marco Polo in this column already with more to come, we promise we barely touched on Bloodline. Heck, for a while the project was just referred to as which stands for the initials of the creators, Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman and Todd A. Kessler.
Since KZK is the team behind the celebrated Glenn Close legal drama Damages, this new project has started to generate some hype.
Bloodline also carries a certain set of expectations since it the result of a partnership between Netflix and Sony Pictures Television, the first deal struck between the streaming service and a major Hollywood studio.
But there still a lot of mystery surrounding this show, likely triggered by the recent release of a haunting teaser for the series, which features images of a burning boat while Chandler character, John Rayburn, says two sentences: not bad people. But we did a bad thing. Kessler, who recently phoned QMI Agency from New York for an exclusive interview. We also obtained some exclusive images to help piece everything together. Here what Kessler told us:
IT ALL ABOUT FAMILY: The story follows the Rayburns, a hard working family in the Florida Keys community. When the eldest brother a black sheep character played by Ben Mendelsohn (The Place Beyond the Pines, The Dark Knight Rises) returns home to celebrate the 45th anniversary of his parents hotel, he threatens to unleash information that could change everything. finishing Damages, which was about the professional world, we really wanted to do our take on a family drama, Kessler says. wanted to explore identity within family, and how much family is held up as both an institution, but also as something in which people potentially end up sacrificing their own individuality for. WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SEASONS: Bloodline first season will feature 13 episodes when it arrives in March. But Kessler says there a lot more to come. we sold the show, we pitched out six seasons, he says. many ways, this first season of the show, story wise, just gets us to the starting line of what we looking to do. ENVIRONMENT PLAYS A BIG ROLE: The Florida Keys gave the creators a perfect setting for Bloodline plot, with water, heat and the elements playing huge roles in the lives of the Rayburns. Kessler highlights the road that takes cars from mainland Florida down to van cleef copy necklace wholesale Key West: one lane south and one lane north for the majority of it. So, it really its own van cleef imitation necklace wholesale isolated environment, which is why we were really intrigued to use it as a setting for the show. IN THE KEYS PRESENTED CHALLENGES: While Kessler says he thankful that they didn encounter any hurricanes, his descriptions of life on set in Florida including enduring non stop rain for an entire week, vomiting from heat stroke and trying to avoid iguanas from falling onto his head when they dropped from the trees makes it sound like it wasn the easiest process. And his encounter with an aggressive swarm of mosquitoes seems pretty scary. After getting out of a van at a scouting location, his team took a few steps into the woods. these mosquitoes swarm, like from ankle level up, he says. were brushing them off our shoulders, you know, our arms, any exposed skin, and then we all just looked at each other and ran back to the van. When we got in the van, they just started pelting the windows to try to get in. It was like out of horror movie. The big van cleef clover necklace sale replica budget historical epic Marco Polo arrives next month, and the family drama meets psychological thriller Bloodline will become available in March.
But while we provided some details about Marco Polo in this column already with more to come, we promise we barely touched on Bloodline. Heck, for a while the project was just referred to as which stands for the initials of the creators, Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman and Todd A. Kessler.
Since KZK is the team behind the celebrated Glenn Close legal drama Damages, this new project has started to generate some hype. We also intrigued by the cast, which includes Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights, The Wolf of Wall Street), Lin
Here's an exclusive first look at the Netflix original series, Bloodline, premiering with all 13 episodes in all Netflix territories in March. Created and executive produced by Todd A. Kessler, Daniel Zelman, and Glenn Kessler and set in the Florida Keys, the series stars: Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Ben Mendelsohn ("The Dark Knight Rises"), Linda Cardellini ("Mad Men"), Sam Shepard ("The Right Stuff"), Sissy Spacek ("Carrie"), Norbert Leo Butz ("Dan in Real Life"), Jamie McShane ("Sons of Anarchy"), Jacinda Barrett ("Suits") and Enrique Murciano ("Without a Trace").
In Bloodline, when the eldest brother and black sheep of the Rayburn family returns home, he exposes the emotional demons that lie at the core of the family, threatening to tear them apart.
After scoring major hits with original shows like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black, Netflix plans to deliver its next batch of originals soon. The big budget historical epic Marco Polo arrives next month, and the family drama meets psychological thriller Bloodline will become available in March.
But while we provided some details about Marco Polo in this column already with more to come, we promise we barely touched on Bloodline. Heck, for a while the project was just referred to as which stands for the initials of the creators, Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman and Todd A. Kessler.
Since KZK is the team behind the celebrated Glenn Close legal drama Damages, this new project has started to generate some hype.
Bloodline also carries a certain set of expectations since it the result of a partnership between Netflix and Sony Pictures Television, the first deal struck between the streaming service and a major Hollywood studio.
But there still a lot of mystery surrounding this show, likely triggered by the recent release of a haunting teaser for the series, which features images of a burning boat while Chandler character, John Rayburn, says two sentences: not bad people. But we did a bad thing. Kessler, who recently phoned QMI Agency from New York for an exclusive interview. We also obtained some exclusive images to help piece everything together. Here what Kessler told us:
IT ALL ABOUT FAMILY: The story follows the Rayburns, a hard working family in the Florida Keys community. When the eldest brother a black sheep character played by Ben Mendelsohn (The Place Beyond the Pines, The Dark Knight Rises) returns home to celebrate the 45th anniversary of his parents hotel, he threatens to unleash information that could change everything. finishing Damages, which was about the professional world, we really wanted to do our take on a family drama, Kessler says. wanted to explore identity within family, and how much family is held up as both an institution, but also as something in which people potentially end up sacrificing their own individuality for. WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SEASONS: Bloodline first season will feature 13 episodes when it arrives in March. But Kessler says there a lot more to come. we sold the show, we pitched out six seasons, he says. many ways, this first season of the show, story wise, just gets us to the starting line of what we looking to do. ENVIRONMENT PLAYS A BIG ROLE: The Florida Keys gave the creators a perfect setting for Bloodline plot, with water, heat and the elements playing huge roles in the lives of the Rayburns. Kessler highlights the road that takes cars from mainland Florida down to van cleef copy necklace wholesale Key West: one lane south and one lane north for the majority of it. So, it really its own van cleef imitation necklace wholesale isolated environment, which is why we were really intrigued to use it as a setting for the show. IN THE KEYS PRESENTED CHALLENGES: While Kessler says he thankful that they didn encounter any hurricanes, his descriptions of life on set in Florida including enduring non stop rain for an entire week, vomiting from heat stroke and trying to avoid iguanas from falling onto his head when they dropped from the trees makes it sound like it wasn the easiest process. And his encounter with an aggressive swarm of mosquitoes seems pretty scary. After getting out of a van at a scouting location, his team took a few steps into the woods. these mosquitoes swarm, like from ankle level up, he says. were brushing them off our shoulders, you know, our arms, any exposed skin, and then we all just looked at each other and ran back to the van. When we got in the van, they just started pelting the windows to try to get in. It was like out of horror movie. The big van cleef clover necklace sale replica budget historical epic Marco Polo arrives next month, and the family drama meets psychological thriller Bloodline will become available in March.
But while we provided some details about Marco Polo in this column already with more to come, we promise we barely touched on Bloodline. Heck, for a while the project was just referred to as which stands for the initials of the creators, Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman and Todd A. Kessler.
Since KZK is the team behind the celebrated Glenn Close legal drama Damages, this new project has started to generate some hype. We also intrigued by the cast, which includes Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights, The Wolf of Wall Street), Lin
Prognosis and prognostic research
Doctors have little specific research to draw on when predicting outcome. In this first article in a series Karel Moons and colleagues explain why research into prognosis is important and how to design such researchHippocrates included prognosis as a principal concept of medicine.1 Nevertheless, principles and methods of prognostic research have received limited attention, especially compared with therapeutic and aetiological research. This article is the first in a series of four aiming to provide an hermes replica bracelet accessible overview of these principles and methods. Our focus is on prognostic studies aimed at predicting outcomes from multiple variables rather than on studies investigating whether a single variable (such as a tumour or other biomarker) may be prognostic. Here we consider the principles of prognosis and multivariable prognostic studies and the reasons for and settings in which multivariable prognostic models are developed and used. The other articles in the series will focus on the development of multivariable prognostic models,2 their validation,3 and the application and impact of prognostic models in practice.4Summary points Prognosis is estimating the risk of future outcomes in individuals based on their clinical and non clinical characteristicsPredicting outcomes is not synonymous with explaining their causePrognostic studies require a multivariable approach to design and analysisThe best design to address prognostic questions is a cohort studyWhat is prognosis?Prognosis simply means foreseeing, predicting, or estimating the probability or risk of future conditions; familiar examples are weather and economic forecasts. In medicine, prognosis commonly relates to the probability or risk of an individual developing a particular state of health (an outcome) over a specific time, based on his or her clinical and non clinical profile. Outcomes are often specific events, such as death or complications, but they may also be quantities, such as disease progression, (changes in) pain, or quality of life.In medical textbooks, however, prognosis commonly refers to the expected course of an illness. This terminology is too general and has limited utility in practice. Doctors replica hermes brecelet clic h do not predict the course of an illness but the course of an illness in a particular individual. Prognosis may be shaped by a patient's age, sex, history, symptoms, signs, and other test results. Moreover, prognostication in medicine is not limited to those who are ill. Healthcare professionals, especially primary care doctors, regularly predict the future in healthy individuals for example, using the Apgar score to determine the prognosis of newborns, cardiovascular risk profiles to predict heart disease in the general population, and prenatal testing to assess the risk that a pregnant woman will give birth to a baby with Down's syndrome.Multivariable research Given hermes replica bracelets the variability among patients and in the aetiology, presentation, and treatment of diseases and other health states, a single predictor or variable rarely gives an adequate estimate of prognosis. Doctors implicitly or explicitly use multiple predictors to estimate a patient's prognosis. Prognostic studies therefore need to use a multivariable approach in design and analysis to determine the important predictors of the studied outcomes and to provide outcome probabilities for different combinations of predictors, or to provide tools to estimate such probabilities. These tools are commonly called prognostic models, prediction models, prediction rules, or risk scores.5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 They enable care providers to use combinations of predictor values to estimate an absolute risk or probability that an outcome will occur in an individual. A multivariable approach also enables researchers to investigate whether specific prognostic factors or markers that are, say, more invasive or costly to measure, have worthwhile added predictive value beyond cheap or simply obtained predictors for example, from patient history or physical examination. Nonetheless, many prognostic studies still consider a single rather than multiple predictors.15Use of prognostic modelsMedical prognostication and prognostic models are used in various settings and for various reasons. The main reasons are to inform individuals about the future course of their illness (or their risk of developing illness) and to guide doctors and patients in joint decisions on further treatment, if any. For example, modifications of the Framingham cardiovascular risk score16 are widely used in primary care to determine the indication for cholesterol lowering and antihypertensive drugs. Examples from secondary care include use of the Nottingham prognostic index to estimate the long term risk of cancer recurrence or death in breast cancer patients,17 the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) to predict hospital mortality in critically ill patients,18 19 and models for predicting postoperative nausea and vomiting.20 21Another reason for prognostication and use of prognostic models is to select relevant patients for therapeutic research. For example, researchers used a previously validated prognostic model to select women with an increased risk of developing cancer for a randomised trial of tamoxifen to prevent breast cancer.22 Another randomised trial on the efficacy of radiotherapy after breast conserving resection used a prognostic model to select patients with a low risk of cancer recurrence.23Prognostic models are also used to compare differences in performance between hospitals. For example, the clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) was originally developed to compare performance and mortality among neonatal intensive care units.24 More recently Jarman et al developed a model to predict the hospital standardised mortality ratio to explain differences between English hospitals.25Differences from aetiological researchAlthough there are clear similarities in the design and analysis of prognostic and aetiological studies, predicting outcomes is not synonymous with explaining their cause.26 27 In aetiological research, the mission is to explain whether an outcome can reliably be attributed to a particular risk factor, with adjustment for other causal factors (confounders) using a multivariable approach. In prognostic research the mission is to use multiple variables to predict, as accurately as possible, the risk of future outcomes. Although a prognostic model may be used to provide insight into causality or pathophysiology of the studied outcome, that is neither an aim nor a requirement. All variables potentially associated with the outcome, not necessarily causally, can be considered in a prognostic study. Every causal factor is a predictor albeit sometimes a weak one but not every predictor is a cause. Nice examples of predictive but non causal factors used in everyday practice are skin colour in the Apgar score and tumour markers as predictors of cancer progression or recurrence. Both are surrogates for obvious causal factors that are more difficult to measure.Furthermore, to guide prognostication in individuals, analysis and reporting of prognostic studies should focus on absolute risk estimates of outcomes given combinations of predictor values. Relative risk estimates (eg odds ratio, risk ratio, or hazard ratio) have no direct meaning or relevance to prognostication in practice. In prediction research, relative risks are used only to obtain an absolute probability of the outcome for an individual, as we will show in our second article.2 In contrast, aetiological and therapeutic studies commonly focus on relative risks for example, the risk of an outcome in presence of a causal factor relative to the risk in its absence. Also, the calibration and discrimination of a multivariable model are highly relevant to prognostic research but meaningless in aetiological research.How to study prognosis?Building on previous guidelines8 10 14 28 29 we distinguish three major steps in multivariable prognostic research that are also followed in the other articles in this series2 3 4: developing the prognostic model, validating its performance in new patients, and studying its clinical impact (box). We focus here on the non statistical characteristics of a multivariable study aimed at developing a prognostic model. The statistical aspects of developing a model are covered in our second article.2Validation studies Validating or testing the model's predictive performance (eg, calibration and discrimination) in new participants. This can be narrow (in participants from the same institution measured in the same manner by the same researchers though at a later time, or in another single institution by different researchers using perhaps slightly different definitions and data collection methods) or broad (participants obtained from various other institutions or using wider inclusion criteria)3 4Impact studies Quantifying whether the use of a prognostic model by practising doctors truly improves their decision making and ultimately patient outcome, which can again be done narrowly or broadly.4ObjectiveThe main objective of a prognostic study is to determine the probability of the specified outcome with different combinations of predictors in a well defined population.Study sampleThe study sample includes people at risk of developing the outcome of interest, defined by the presence of a particular condition (for example, an illness, undergoing surgery, copy hermes clic h bracelet or being pregnant).Study designThe best design to answer prognostic questions is a cohort study. A prospective study is preferable as it enables optimal measurement of predictors and outcome (see below). Studies using cohorts already assembled for other reasons allow longer follow up times but usually at the expense of poorer data. Unfortunately, the prognostic literature is dominated by retrospective studies. Case control studies are sometimes used for prognostic analysis, but they do not automatically allow estimation of absolute risks because cases and controls are often sampled from a source population of unknown size. Since investigators are free to choose the ratio of cases and controls, the absolute outcome risks can be manipulated.30 An exception is a case control study nested in a cohort of known size.31Data from randomised trials of treatment can also be used to study prognosis. When the treatment is ineffective (relative risk=1.0), the intervention and comparison group can simply be combined to study baseline prognosis. If the treatment is effective the groups can be combined, but the treatment variable should then be included as a separate predictor in the multivariable model. Here treatments are studied on their independent predictive effect and not on their therapeutic or preventive effects. However, prognostic models obtained from randomised trial data may have restricted generalisability because of strict eligibility criteria for the trial, low recruitment levels, or large numbers refusing consent.PredictorsCandidate predictors can be obtained from patient demographics, clinical history, physical examination, disease characteristics, test results, and previous treatment. Prognostic studies may focus on a cohort of patients who have not (yet) received prognosis modifying treatments that is, to study the natural course or baseline prognosis of patients with that condition. They can also examine predictors of prognosis in patients who have received treatments.Studied predictors should be clearly defined, standardised, and reproducible to enhance generalisability and application of study results to practice.32 Predictors requiring subjective interpretation, such as imaging test results, are of particular concern in this context because there is a risk of studying the predictive ability of the observer rather than that of the predictors. Also, predictors should be measured using methods applicable or potentially applicable to daily practice. Specialised measurement techniques may yield optimistic predictions.As discussed above, the prognostic value of treatments can also be studied, especially when randomised trials are used. However, caution is needed in including treatments as prognostic factors when data are observational. Indications for treatment and treatment administration are often not standardised in observational studies and confounding by indication could lead to bias and large variation in the (type of) administered treatments.33 Moreover, in many circumstances the predictive effect of treatments is small compared with that of other important prognostic variables such as age, sex, and disease stage.Finally, of course, studies should include only predictors that will be available at the time when the model is intended to be used.34 If the aim is to predict a patient's prognosis at the time of diagnosis, for example, predictors that will not be known until actual treatment has started are of little value.OutcomePreferably, prognostic studies should focus on outcomes that are relevant to patients, such as occurrence or remission of disease, death, complications, tumour growth, pain, treatment response, or quality of life. Surrogate or intermediate outcomes, such as hospital stay or physiological measurements, are unhelpful unless they have a clear causal relation to relevant patient outcomes, such as CD4 counts instead of development of AIDS or death in HIV studies. The period over which the outcome is studied and the methods of measurement should be clearly defined. Finally, outcomes should be measured without knowledge of the predictors under study to prevent bias, particularly if measurement requires observer interpretation. Blinding is not necessary when the outcome is all cause mortality. But if the outcome is cause specific mortality, knowledge of the predictors might influence assessment of outcomes (and vice versa in retrospective studies where predictors are documented after the outcome was assessed).Required number of patientsThe multivariable character of prognostic research makes it difficult to estimate the required sample size. There are no straightforward methods for this. When the number of predictors is much larger than the number of outcome events, there is a risk of overestimating the predictive performance of the model. Ideally, prognostic studies require at least several hundred outcome events. Various studies have suggested that for each candidate predictor studied at least 10 events are required,6 8 35 36 although a recent study showed that this number could be lower in certain circumstances.37
Doctors have little specific research to draw on when predicting outcome. In this first article in a series Karel Moons and colleagues explain why research into prognosis is important and how to design such researchHippocrates included prognosis as a principal concept of medicine.1 Nevertheless, principles and methods of prognostic research have received limited attention, especially compared with therapeutic and aetiological research. This article is the first in a series of four aiming to provide an hermes replica bracelet accessible overview of these principles and methods. Our focus is on prognostic studies aimed at predicting outcomes from multiple variables rather than on studies investigating whether a single variable (such as a tumour or other biomarker) may be prognostic. Here we consider the principles of prognosis and multivariable prognostic studies and the reasons for and settings in which multivariable prognostic models are developed and used. The other articles in the series will focus on the development of multivariable prognostic models,2 their validation,3 and the application and impact of prognostic models in practice.4Summary points Prognosis is estimating the risk of future outcomes in individuals based on their clinical and non clinical characteristicsPredicting outcomes is not synonymous with explaining their causePrognostic studies require a multivariable approach to design and analysisThe best design to address prognostic questions is a cohort studyWhat is prognosis?Prognosis simply means foreseeing, predicting, or estimating the probability or risk of future conditions; familiar examples are weather and economic forecasts. In medicine, prognosis commonly relates to the probability or risk of an individual developing a particular state of health (an outcome) over a specific time, based on his or her clinical and non clinical profile. Outcomes are often specific events, such as death or complications, but they may also be quantities, such as disease progression, (changes in) pain, or quality of life.In medical textbooks, however, prognosis commonly refers to the expected course of an illness. This terminology is too general and has limited utility in practice. Doctors replica hermes brecelet clic h do not predict the course of an illness but the course of an illness in a particular individual. Prognosis may be shaped by a patient's age, sex, history, symptoms, signs, and other test results. Moreover, prognostication in medicine is not limited to those who are ill. Healthcare professionals, especially primary care doctors, regularly predict the future in healthy individuals for example, using the Apgar score to determine the prognosis of newborns, cardiovascular risk profiles to predict heart disease in the general population, and prenatal testing to assess the risk that a pregnant woman will give birth to a baby with Down's syndrome.Multivariable research Given hermes replica bracelets the variability among patients and in the aetiology, presentation, and treatment of diseases and other health states, a single predictor or variable rarely gives an adequate estimate of prognosis. Doctors implicitly or explicitly use multiple predictors to estimate a patient's prognosis. Prognostic studies therefore need to use a multivariable approach in design and analysis to determine the important predictors of the studied outcomes and to provide outcome probabilities for different combinations of predictors, or to provide tools to estimate such probabilities. These tools are commonly called prognostic models, prediction models, prediction rules, or risk scores.5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 They enable care providers to use combinations of predictor values to estimate an absolute risk or probability that an outcome will occur in an individual. A multivariable approach also enables researchers to investigate whether specific prognostic factors or markers that are, say, more invasive or costly to measure, have worthwhile added predictive value beyond cheap or simply obtained predictors for example, from patient history or physical examination. Nonetheless, many prognostic studies still consider a single rather than multiple predictors.15Use of prognostic modelsMedical prognostication and prognostic models are used in various settings and for various reasons. The main reasons are to inform individuals about the future course of their illness (or their risk of developing illness) and to guide doctors and patients in joint decisions on further treatment, if any. For example, modifications of the Framingham cardiovascular risk score16 are widely used in primary care to determine the indication for cholesterol lowering and antihypertensive drugs. Examples from secondary care include use of the Nottingham prognostic index to estimate the long term risk of cancer recurrence or death in breast cancer patients,17 the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) to predict hospital mortality in critically ill patients,18 19 and models for predicting postoperative nausea and vomiting.20 21Another reason for prognostication and use of prognostic models is to select relevant patients for therapeutic research. For example, researchers used a previously validated prognostic model to select women with an increased risk of developing cancer for a randomised trial of tamoxifen to prevent breast cancer.22 Another randomised trial on the efficacy of radiotherapy after breast conserving resection used a prognostic model to select patients with a low risk of cancer recurrence.23Prognostic models are also used to compare differences in performance between hospitals. For example, the clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) was originally developed to compare performance and mortality among neonatal intensive care units.24 More recently Jarman et al developed a model to predict the hospital standardised mortality ratio to explain differences between English hospitals.25Differences from aetiological researchAlthough there are clear similarities in the design and analysis of prognostic and aetiological studies, predicting outcomes is not synonymous with explaining their cause.26 27 In aetiological research, the mission is to explain whether an outcome can reliably be attributed to a particular risk factor, with adjustment for other causal factors (confounders) using a multivariable approach. In prognostic research the mission is to use multiple variables to predict, as accurately as possible, the risk of future outcomes. Although a prognostic model may be used to provide insight into causality or pathophysiology of the studied outcome, that is neither an aim nor a requirement. All variables potentially associated with the outcome, not necessarily causally, can be considered in a prognostic study. Every causal factor is a predictor albeit sometimes a weak one but not every predictor is a cause. Nice examples of predictive but non causal factors used in everyday practice are skin colour in the Apgar score and tumour markers as predictors of cancer progression or recurrence. Both are surrogates for obvious causal factors that are more difficult to measure.Furthermore, to guide prognostication in individuals, analysis and reporting of prognostic studies should focus on absolute risk estimates of outcomes given combinations of predictor values. Relative risk estimates (eg odds ratio, risk ratio, or hazard ratio) have no direct meaning or relevance to prognostication in practice. In prediction research, relative risks are used only to obtain an absolute probability of the outcome for an individual, as we will show in our second article.2 In contrast, aetiological and therapeutic studies commonly focus on relative risks for example, the risk of an outcome in presence of a causal factor relative to the risk in its absence. Also, the calibration and discrimination of a multivariable model are highly relevant to prognostic research but meaningless in aetiological research.How to study prognosis?Building on previous guidelines8 10 14 28 29 we distinguish three major steps in multivariable prognostic research that are also followed in the other articles in this series2 3 4: developing the prognostic model, validating its performance in new patients, and studying its clinical impact (box). We focus here on the non statistical characteristics of a multivariable study aimed at developing a prognostic model. The statistical aspects of developing a model are covered in our second article.2Validation studies Validating or testing the model's predictive performance (eg, calibration and discrimination) in new participants. This can be narrow (in participants from the same institution measured in the same manner by the same researchers though at a later time, or in another single institution by different researchers using perhaps slightly different definitions and data collection methods) or broad (participants obtained from various other institutions or using wider inclusion criteria)3 4Impact studies Quantifying whether the use of a prognostic model by practising doctors truly improves their decision making and ultimately patient outcome, which can again be done narrowly or broadly.4ObjectiveThe main objective of a prognostic study is to determine the probability of the specified outcome with different combinations of predictors in a well defined population.Study sampleThe study sample includes people at risk of developing the outcome of interest, defined by the presence of a particular condition (for example, an illness, undergoing surgery, copy hermes clic h bracelet or being pregnant).Study designThe best design to answer prognostic questions is a cohort study. A prospective study is preferable as it enables optimal measurement of predictors and outcome (see below). Studies using cohorts already assembled for other reasons allow longer follow up times but usually at the expense of poorer data. Unfortunately, the prognostic literature is dominated by retrospective studies. Case control studies are sometimes used for prognostic analysis, but they do not automatically allow estimation of absolute risks because cases and controls are often sampled from a source population of unknown size. Since investigators are free to choose the ratio of cases and controls, the absolute outcome risks can be manipulated.30 An exception is a case control study nested in a cohort of known size.31Data from randomised trials of treatment can also be used to study prognosis. When the treatment is ineffective (relative risk=1.0), the intervention and comparison group can simply be combined to study baseline prognosis. If the treatment is effective the groups can be combined, but the treatment variable should then be included as a separate predictor in the multivariable model. Here treatments are studied on their independent predictive effect and not on their therapeutic or preventive effects. However, prognostic models obtained from randomised trial data may have restricted generalisability because of strict eligibility criteria for the trial, low recruitment levels, or large numbers refusing consent.PredictorsCandidate predictors can be obtained from patient demographics, clinical history, physical examination, disease characteristics, test results, and previous treatment. Prognostic studies may focus on a cohort of patients who have not (yet) received prognosis modifying treatments that is, to study the natural course or baseline prognosis of patients with that condition. They can also examine predictors of prognosis in patients who have received treatments.Studied predictors should be clearly defined, standardised, and reproducible to enhance generalisability and application of study results to practice.32 Predictors requiring subjective interpretation, such as imaging test results, are of particular concern in this context because there is a risk of studying the predictive ability of the observer rather than that of the predictors. Also, predictors should be measured using methods applicable or potentially applicable to daily practice. Specialised measurement techniques may yield optimistic predictions.As discussed above, the prognostic value of treatments can also be studied, especially when randomised trials are used. However, caution is needed in including treatments as prognostic factors when data are observational. Indications for treatment and treatment administration are often not standardised in observational studies and confounding by indication could lead to bias and large variation in the (type of) administered treatments.33 Moreover, in many circumstances the predictive effect of treatments is small compared with that of other important prognostic variables such as age, sex, and disease stage.Finally, of course, studies should include only predictors that will be available at the time when the model is intended to be used.34 If the aim is to predict a patient's prognosis at the time of diagnosis, for example, predictors that will not be known until actual treatment has started are of little value.OutcomePreferably, prognostic studies should focus on outcomes that are relevant to patients, such as occurrence or remission of disease, death, complications, tumour growth, pain, treatment response, or quality of life. Surrogate or intermediate outcomes, such as hospital stay or physiological measurements, are unhelpful unless they have a clear causal relation to relevant patient outcomes, such as CD4 counts instead of development of AIDS or death in HIV studies. The period over which the outcome is studied and the methods of measurement should be clearly defined. Finally, outcomes should be measured without knowledge of the predictors under study to prevent bias, particularly if measurement requires observer interpretation. Blinding is not necessary when the outcome is all cause mortality. But if the outcome is cause specific mortality, knowledge of the predictors might influence assessment of outcomes (and vice versa in retrospective studies where predictors are documented after the outcome was assessed).Required number of patientsThe multivariable character of prognostic research makes it difficult to estimate the required sample size. There are no straightforward methods for this. When the number of predictors is much larger than the number of outcome events, there is a risk of overestimating the predictive performance of the model. Ideally, prognostic studies require at least several hundred outcome events. Various studies have suggested that for each candidate predictor studied at least 10 events are required,6 8 35 36 although a recent study showed that this number could be lower in certain circumstances.37
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Pipeline foes set up new camp at Kinder Morgan terminal in Burnaby
Van Hardeveld, who was part of the original Kinder Morgan protests on Burnaby Mountain, said people have been at the new camp 24 hours a day for a couple of weeks.
Their large tent is stocked with food and bedding and has crudely fashioned windows with views of the Burrard Inlet. The campers have mostly observed tankers filling up at the terminal and workers driving to the site.
Van Hardeveld is opposed to the pipeline project because he's concerned about climate change. The campers say they will stay till Kinder Morgan drops its plan to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline, which the National Energy Board is currently reviewing.
"It's a concern because it's continuing a path we can't continue as a species," hermes h bracelets fake he said. hermes bracelets replica "Fossil fuel extraction is not compatible with our lives."
The tent is set up just outside the Kinder Morgan property line, on the grass beside Bayview Drive.
Meanwhile, the camp on Centennial Way is mostly gone apart from a pile of a few leftover items. City staff removed truckloads of trash following the 10 day standoff with police and Kinder Morgan crews in late November.
"We have done a replica hermes bracelets lot of cleanup in the area, we've been in with our crews picking up hermes bracelet fake any sort of debris and stuff in the area," said Don Hunter, assistant director of the city's parks and recreation department.
Van Hardeveld, who was part of the original Kinder Morgan protests on Burnaby Mountain, said people have been at the new camp 24 hours a day for a couple of weeks.
Their large tent is stocked with food and bedding and has crudely fashioned windows with views of the Burrard Inlet. The campers have mostly observed tankers filling up at the terminal and workers driving to the site.
Van Hardeveld is opposed to the pipeline project because he's concerned about climate change. The campers say they will stay till Kinder Morgan drops its plan to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline, which the National Energy Board is currently reviewing.
"It's a concern because it's continuing a path we can't continue as a species," hermes h bracelets fake he said. hermes bracelets replica "Fossil fuel extraction is not compatible with our lives."
The tent is set up just outside the Kinder Morgan property line, on the grass beside Bayview Drive.
Meanwhile, the camp on Centennial Way is mostly gone apart from a pile of a few leftover items. City staff removed truckloads of trash following the 10 day standoff with police and Kinder Morgan crews in late November.
"We have done a replica hermes bracelets lot of cleanup in the area, we've been in with our crews picking up hermes bracelet fake any sort of debris and stuff in the area," said Don Hunter, assistant director of the city's parks and recreation department.
liveau travelled the world on FOOT for over 11 years
Who hasn't dreamed of going off grid, of packing everything in and travelling the world?
For the explorers, adventurers and nomads among us, the lure of the road, away from the daily grind, grows too strong and travel becomes a calling. But imagine if your dream were to travel the whole world on foot, taking you 75,500km (46, 900 miles) away from home, from your wife, your children and even your grandchildren.
For one man, these pangs of wanderlust sent him on an 11 year odyssey where he slept in jail cells in South Africa, found friendship with gang members in Guatemala and suffered the intense loneliness and stifling heat of the Australian outback.
MailOnline Travel spoke to Jean Bliveau, the man who walked around the world.
Scroll down for video
'I had midlife crisis and had to leave my past life and find something different.
'I'd rather be eaten by lion than be eaten by society,' Jean Beliveau tells MailOnline Travel over a crackly phone line, from the house he's currently building, in a Canadian forest.
At aged 45, Beliveau who owned a neon sign factory in Montreal, was at a crossroad in his life.
While walking across Jacques Cartier Bridge one day he started to wonder how long it might take him to keep walking to New York.
Then he expanded his dream further until he had a plan to travel six continents on foot.
The Canadian's resulting journey is believed to be the world's longest uninterrupted circumnavigation on foot.
He travelled from Montreal to Brazil to South Africa to Egypt to Morocco to Europe(Portugal. Spain, France, Ireland, Scotland, England, Germany) to Turkey then Iran, India, China, Japan, Taiwan, Borneo, Indonesia, Australia (North to South) and crossed six deserts in the cartier bracelet love replica process.
After nine months of preparation, with just a trolley of camping essentials and $4000 Canadian dollars raised by his supportive wife Luce, Beliveau set off on his adventure.
He said the walk was to 'promote peace and non violence for fake cartier love bracelet sale the children of the world' and ran awebsitehighlighting different local causes that tied in with his theme along the way.
Wonders imitation love bracelets cartier of the world: In March 2005, Jean was mesmerised by the Great Sphinx and the Pyramids in Egypt
'The north end of Australia was a big challenge with the 45 degree heat in October, November and December. It was really warm and lonely on the road.
'But it was a beautiful experience, people gave me water.'
Beliveau relied on the kindness of strangers to keep his trip going. He stayed with 1600 families and slept in churches, temples, schools, parks, forests and even bedded down for the night in jail.
Remarkable encounters: Jean met four Nobel Prize winners during his journey including Nelson Mandela in Durban, South Africa, in 2003 (pictured)
'In America I stayed in jail and would sleep in the same cell as a prisoner. In a South African jail once they forgot me. They changed shifts and came over and I said 'I'm just a guest here' but they couldn't find anything on file.'
He freely admits his trip was blighted by a prolonged culture shock, especially fake white gold cartier bracelet witnessing the poverty of India and Africa where it would be a 'blessing to have a roof'.
He was heckled by children in Ethiopia which he said 'nearly broke him'.
Jean covered approximately 20 miles a day and crossed six deserts over the years. He is pictured in Shiraz, Iran in 2007
He said: 'In Ethiopia there was a culmination of nature and culture shock. It's a special place, children were walking around me and dancing and tried to talk with me. They didn't speak English and would follow me and repeat everything.
'After a couple of days of this I was so tired and couldn't have any more contact.'
He also learned the hard way not to wink at people as it was considered a sexual invitation.
Mixing with gangs in Ecuador and South Africa, he said once they realised he was walking for a good cause this protected him and earned him support from some of the world's most notorious criminals.
Jean's wife Luce, family and a few friends gathered to witness his first departing steps (right)At the US Mexico border in 2001 (left) during the early days of his adventure
He said: 'A gang member in in Guatemala gave me money as he had been a child soldier and said he'd had a bad childhood.'Features replica cartier with diamonds ring Galvanized steel You should have Let's know about its detailed
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Who hasn't dreamed of going off grid, of packing everything in and travelling the world?
For the explorers, adventurers and nomads among us, the lure of the road, away from the daily grind, grows too strong and travel becomes a calling. But imagine if your dream were to travel the whole world on foot, taking you 75,500km (46, 900 miles) away from home, from your wife, your children and even your grandchildren.
For one man, these pangs of wanderlust sent him on an 11 year odyssey where he slept in jail cells in South Africa, found friendship with gang members in Guatemala and suffered the intense loneliness and stifling heat of the Australian outback.
MailOnline Travel spoke to Jean Bliveau, the man who walked around the world.
Scroll down for video
'I had midlife crisis and had to leave my past life and find something different.
'I'd rather be eaten by lion than be eaten by society,' Jean Beliveau tells MailOnline Travel over a crackly phone line, from the house he's currently building, in a Canadian forest.
At aged 45, Beliveau who owned a neon sign factory in Montreal, was at a crossroad in his life.
While walking across Jacques Cartier Bridge one day he started to wonder how long it might take him to keep walking to New York.
Then he expanded his dream further until he had a plan to travel six continents on foot.
The Canadian's resulting journey is believed to be the world's longest uninterrupted circumnavigation on foot.
He travelled from Montreal to Brazil to South Africa to Egypt to Morocco to Europe(Portugal. Spain, France, Ireland, Scotland, England, Germany) to Turkey then Iran, India, China, Japan, Taiwan, Borneo, Indonesia, Australia (North to South) and crossed six deserts in the cartier bracelet love replica process.
After nine months of preparation, with just a trolley of camping essentials and $4000 Canadian dollars raised by his supportive wife Luce, Beliveau set off on his adventure.
He said the walk was to 'promote peace and non violence for fake cartier love bracelet sale the children of the world' and ran awebsitehighlighting different local causes that tied in with his theme along the way.
Wonders imitation love bracelets cartier of the world: In March 2005, Jean was mesmerised by the Great Sphinx and the Pyramids in Egypt
'The north end of Australia was a big challenge with the 45 degree heat in October, November and December. It was really warm and lonely on the road.
'But it was a beautiful experience, people gave me water.'
Beliveau relied on the kindness of strangers to keep his trip going. He stayed with 1600 families and slept in churches, temples, schools, parks, forests and even bedded down for the night in jail.
Remarkable encounters: Jean met four Nobel Prize winners during his journey including Nelson Mandela in Durban, South Africa, in 2003 (pictured)
'In America I stayed in jail and would sleep in the same cell as a prisoner. In a South African jail once they forgot me. They changed shifts and came over and I said 'I'm just a guest here' but they couldn't find anything on file.'
He freely admits his trip was blighted by a prolonged culture shock, especially fake white gold cartier bracelet witnessing the poverty of India and Africa where it would be a 'blessing to have a roof'.
He was heckled by children in Ethiopia which he said 'nearly broke him'.
Jean covered approximately 20 miles a day and crossed six deserts over the years. He is pictured in Shiraz, Iran in 2007
He said: 'In Ethiopia there was a culmination of nature and culture shock. It's a special place, children were walking around me and dancing and tried to talk with me. They didn't speak English and would follow me and repeat everything.
'After a couple of days of this I was so tired and couldn't have any more contact.'
He also learned the hard way not to wink at people as it was considered a sexual invitation.
Mixing with gangs in Ecuador and South Africa, he said once they realised he was walking for a good cause this protected him and earned him support from some of the world's most notorious criminals.
Jean's wife Luce, family and a few friends gathered to witness his first departing steps (right)At the US Mexico border in 2001 (left) during the early days of his adventure
He said: 'A gang member in in Guatemala gave me money as he had been a child soldier and said he'd had a bad childhood.'
Fashion brand Bally back on growth path
buyers, its chief executive said.
Frederic de Narp said he aimed to lift Bally's annual sales to 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) within 5 10 years from its current level of 400 million euros.
The 164 year old company, one of Europe's biggest shoe makers before World War I, has lacked a clear strategic direction for many years, industry players say.
Between 2008 and 2010 its then designer Brian Atwood put out perilously high stilettos, which they say took the brand too far away from its Swiss conservative, classical roots.
Then, Michael Herz and Graeme Fidler, who left two years ago, put out retro 1930s style collections that jarred somewhat with the brand's minimalist, sober image.
Narp, in the job for a year and a half, said Pablo Coppola, the designer he chose, was now creating designs that were elegant and in tune with current fashion trends. Coppola previously worked for Dior, Tom Ford and Celine.
"Bally has a fantastic heritage, the only thing we have to do is to exploit it well," said the CEO, who previously worked at jewelers Cartier and Harry Winston.
"We do not sell a sex story, we sell effortless chic," he told Reuters in an interview on cartier love bracelet on sale replica the sidelines of the FT Business of Luxury Summit in Monaco.
The privately held company mainly sells shoes and bags, with one of its best selling products the Sommet bag, a flare edged leather bag that starts at around 1,200 euros. The company expects full year growth to be in the low to mid single digits.
Bally is profitable at the underlying level, or in terms of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), Narp added.
Japan has been one of its strongest growing markets this year with sales up 49 percent at constant exchange rates and business has been picking up also in the United States where sales rose 7 percent also at constant exchange rates.
The company opened its first flagship in 20 years in October, on London's New Bond Street, and plans to open nine more over the next five years, with the next one on Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles in November and another in Ginza, Tokyo, in 2016.
Narp said he wanted to double Bally's business in the United States and Japan over the next five years.
He said it would take time to turn around Bally, particularly in the current tough environment, with subdued demand in Europe and slower economic growth in China.
Bally has 60 stores in Greater China and makes more than half of its sales to Chinese customers, Narp said.
Now one of his top objectives was to make Bally more appealing to women as they now only made up 30 percent of clientele and he fake cartier bracelet wanted to boost that figure to 50 percent within the next few years.
To raise its profile, Bally also hired super model fake white gold cartier bracelet Freja Beha Erichsen, who has worked for Chanel and Louis Vuitton, for its advertising campaigns.
Narp said sales from women's products such as handbags, shoes and other small leather goods were up 15 percent at constant exchange rates since the beginning of the year.
He said Bally's top creative and marketing leadership was now based in London because it was easier to attract talent there than in Switzerland.
Luxembourg based JAB Holdings bought Bally from private equity firm TPG in 2008, a deal that marked its first venture into the fashion and luxury world.
JAB, an investment company with imitation cartier love bangle over $39 billion of assets under management, works for the Reimanns German billionaires who inherited their fortune from soap and detergent maker Reckitt Benckiser.trend dupe cartier diamonds bracelet steel You should have it Let's aware regarding its detailed
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buyers, its chief executive said.
Frederic de Narp said he aimed to lift Bally's annual sales to 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) within 5 10 years from its current level of 400 million euros.
The 164 year old company, one of Europe's biggest shoe makers before World War I, has lacked a clear strategic direction for many years, industry players say.
Between 2008 and 2010 its then designer Brian Atwood put out perilously high stilettos, which they say took the brand too far away from its Swiss conservative, classical roots.
Then, Michael Herz and Graeme Fidler, who left two years ago, put out retro 1930s style collections that jarred somewhat with the brand's minimalist, sober image.
Narp, in the job for a year and a half, said Pablo Coppola, the designer he chose, was now creating designs that were elegant and in tune with current fashion trends. Coppola previously worked for Dior, Tom Ford and Celine.
"Bally has a fantastic heritage, the only thing we have to do is to exploit it well," said the CEO, who previously worked at jewelers Cartier and Harry Winston.
"We do not sell a sex story, we sell effortless chic," he told Reuters in an interview on cartier love bracelet on sale replica the sidelines of the FT Business of Luxury Summit in Monaco.
The privately held company mainly sells shoes and bags, with one of its best selling products the Sommet bag, a flare edged leather bag that starts at around 1,200 euros. The company expects full year growth to be in the low to mid single digits.
Bally is profitable at the underlying level, or in terms of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), Narp added.
Japan has been one of its strongest growing markets this year with sales up 49 percent at constant exchange rates and business has been picking up also in the United States where sales rose 7 percent also at constant exchange rates.
The company opened its first flagship in 20 years in October, on London's New Bond Street, and plans to open nine more over the next five years, with the next one on Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles in November and another in Ginza, Tokyo, in 2016.
Narp said he wanted to double Bally's business in the United States and Japan over the next five years.
He said it would take time to turn around Bally, particularly in the current tough environment, with subdued demand in Europe and slower economic growth in China.
Bally has 60 stores in Greater China and makes more than half of its sales to Chinese customers, Narp said.
Now one of his top objectives was to make Bally more appealing to women as they now only made up 30 percent of clientele and he fake cartier bracelet wanted to boost that figure to 50 percent within the next few years.
To raise its profile, Bally also hired super model fake white gold cartier bracelet Freja Beha Erichsen, who has worked for Chanel and Louis Vuitton, for its advertising campaigns.
Narp said sales from women's products such as handbags, shoes and other small leather goods were up 15 percent at constant exchange rates since the beginning of the year.
He said Bally's top creative and marketing leadership was now based in London because it was easier to attract talent there than in Switzerland.
Luxembourg based JAB Holdings bought Bally from private equity firm TPG in 2008, a deal that marked its first venture into the fashion and luxury world.
JAB, an investment company with imitation cartier love bangle over $39 billion of assets under management, works for the Reimanns German billionaires who inherited their fortune from soap and detergent maker Reckitt Benckiser.
Murderer fell for prison guard
A murderer serving a life sentence at Auckland Prison in Paremoremo developed such an infatuation for a Corrections officer he had her name tattooed across his chest.George Baker jailed for life for killing Liam Ashley in the back of a prison van was so enamoured of the woman he bragged to other inmates that they were in a sexual relationship.A source told the Herald on Sunday that the murderer instructed other inmates holed up in the prison's A replica van Cleef & Arpels Ring block to refer to her as "Mrs Baker".It is understood that Corrections learned about Baker's claims through other inmates.The source added the allegations of the relationship were not believed because Baker was a "notorious liar".It is understood the woman was distressed over the allegations and the potential damage to her reputation. She was moved to work van cleef and arpels ring replica at another unit at the prison."There is no truth to allegations that a female Corrections officer was in a sexual relationship with a prisoner," said Tom Sherlock, Auckland Prison director."Allegations of this nature are taken seriously."However, it quickly became obvious there was no truth to them and this staff member was the victim of an infatuation."Sherlock added that Corrections officers were regularly rotated around different units and the staffer has been been moved to another unit as part of her rotation schedule."Corrections provided the staff member with support from senior female staff and counselling was offered," he said.There are 40 female Corrections Officers at Auckland Prison and 745 nationwide.Baker is one of New Zealand's most callous killers and has a long rap sheet.He was jailed for life after pleading guilty to killing 17 year old Ashley in the back of a prison van while the pair were being transported to Auckland Central Remand Prison in November 2006.The teenager was strangled before Baker stomped on his head. Baker was in custody after being charged over a North Shore stabbing and threatening witnesses.When the van arrived at the prison, security guards found Ashley slumped on the floor. Baker told them: "You better get him out of there. I've just killed him. He's not breathing."He was jailed for life with a minimum non parole period of 18 years.In 2008, Baker tried to escape from a van returning him to prison from North Shore Hospital.Our Features Top StoriesDrivenWhat's it like driving James Bond's Lotus copy Van Cleef and Arpels ring Espirit? Never meet your heroes? Well, it's not always the case.
A murderer serving a life sentence at Auckland Prison in Paremoremo developed such an infatuation for a Corrections officer he had her name tattooed across his chest.George Baker jailed for life for killing Liam Ashley in the back of a prison van was so enamoured of the woman he bragged to other inmates that they were in a sexual relationship.A source told the Herald on Sunday that the murderer instructed other inmates holed up in the prison's A replica van Cleef & Arpels Ring block to refer to her as "Mrs Baker".It is understood that Corrections learned about Baker's claims through other inmates.The source added the allegations of the relationship were not believed because Baker was a "notorious liar".It is understood the woman was distressed over the allegations and the potential damage to her reputation. She was moved to work van cleef and arpels ring replica at another unit at the prison."There is no truth to allegations that a female Corrections officer was in a sexual relationship with a prisoner," said Tom Sherlock, Auckland Prison director."Allegations of this nature are taken seriously."However, it quickly became obvious there was no truth to them and this staff member was the victim of an infatuation."Sherlock added that Corrections officers were regularly rotated around different units and the staffer has been been moved to another unit as part of her rotation schedule."Corrections provided the staff member with support from senior female staff and counselling was offered," he said.There are 40 female Corrections Officers at Auckland Prison and 745 nationwide.Baker is one of New Zealand's most callous killers and has a long rap sheet.He was jailed for life after pleading guilty to killing 17 year old Ashley in the back of a prison van while the pair were being transported to Auckland Central Remand Prison in November 2006.The teenager was strangled before Baker stomped on his head. Baker was in custody after being charged over a North Shore stabbing and threatening witnesses.When the van arrived at the prison, security guards found Ashley slumped on the floor. Baker told them: "You better get him out of there. I've just killed him. He's not breathing."He was jailed for life with a minimum non parole period of 18 years.In 2008, Baker tried to escape from a van returning him to prison from North Shore Hospital.Our Features Top StoriesDrivenWhat's it like driving James Bond's Lotus copy Van Cleef and Arpels ring Espirit? Never meet your heroes? Well, it's not always the case.
Monster truck used by Russians in the Cold War transformed into luxury camper van
These days you can camp anywhere from swinging in the branches to inside a Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry replica disused church. But in a Russian army truck used in the Cold War, really?
Chris Armstrong, 41, has converted the back of a 12.5 tonne six wheel drive Russian Ural 175D, into luxury accommodation that has a double bed, shower, toilet and its own kitchen with fridge.
The former Royal Marine medic fell in love with the 17 foot long nuclear proof vehicle while working in Siberia replica Van Cleef and Arpels ring and Kazakhstan and bought one on eBay from a man in Dresden, Germany, for 6,000 in 2008.
Most watched News videos EXCLUSIVE: Ariana Grande plane arrives back in the US Moment armed police storm of Manchester suicide bomber Blood seen dripping from victim leg after Manchester Moment bomb explodes at Ariana Grande concert Girls scream and climb over barriers as they evacuate Manchester Arena Terrifying scenes inside Manchester Arena as crowd flee concert Ariana Grande fans running away from venue after an explosion Sickening video warns of more attacks after Manchester Police swoop in on suspect as part of Manchester investigation Homeless man describes how he helped after Manchester attack no problems here Manchester Arena announcement urges no panic Eye witness describes spotting the Manchester attacker
EXCLUSIVE: First photos of Ariana Grande since Manchester. Schoolgirl, 14, who watched Ariana Grande on crutches is. Help for the homeless heroes: Millionaire West Ham owner. Theresa May warns a fresh terror attack is feared to be. PIERS MORGAN: The Manchester van cleef and arpels ring replica murderer may have been a. My son is innocent, insists father of Manchester Arena. 'Like bits of fire': Mother and daughter share photos of. EXCLUSIVE: Ariana Grande's hero mom who helped bring. Troops on the streets on a scale not seen since WWII:. 'Our little princess has been so lucky': Father's joy as. Mother of teen, 18, killed in Manchester terror attack. Tourists watch in horror as armed police arrest man. Horror on the M6: Lorry driver is arrested after four. More than 24 hours on, desperate families still search. Aaron Hernandez's hell behind bars: NFL star killed. She STILL doesn't wanna hold his hand: Melania leaves. Terrorist's brother arrested: Dramatic moment armed. Bomber from a red brick semi who 'knew an ISIS. MOST READ NEWS Previous.
These days you can camp anywhere from swinging in the branches to inside a Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry replica disused church. But in a Russian army truck used in the Cold War, really?
Chris Armstrong, 41, has converted the back of a 12.5 tonne six wheel drive Russian Ural 175D, into luxury accommodation that has a double bed, shower, toilet and its own kitchen with fridge.
The former Royal Marine medic fell in love with the 17 foot long nuclear proof vehicle while working in Siberia replica Van Cleef and Arpels ring and Kazakhstan and bought one on eBay from a man in Dresden, Germany, for 6,000 in 2008.
Most watched News videos EXCLUSIVE: Ariana Grande plane arrives back in the US Moment armed police storm of Manchester suicide bomber Blood seen dripping from victim leg after Manchester Moment bomb explodes at Ariana Grande concert Girls scream and climb over barriers as they evacuate Manchester Arena Terrifying scenes inside Manchester Arena as crowd flee concert Ariana Grande fans running away from venue after an explosion Sickening video warns of more attacks after Manchester Police swoop in on suspect as part of Manchester investigation Homeless man describes how he helped after Manchester attack no problems here Manchester Arena announcement urges no panic Eye witness describes spotting the Manchester attacker
EXCLUSIVE: First photos of Ariana Grande since Manchester. Schoolgirl, 14, who watched Ariana Grande on crutches is. Help for the homeless heroes: Millionaire West Ham owner. Theresa May warns a fresh terror attack is feared to be. PIERS MORGAN: The Manchester van cleef and arpels ring replica murderer may have been a. My son is innocent, insists father of Manchester Arena. 'Like bits of fire': Mother and daughter share photos of. EXCLUSIVE: Ariana Grande's hero mom who helped bring. Troops on the streets on a scale not seen since WWII:. 'Our little princess has been so lucky': Father's joy as. Mother of teen, 18, killed in Manchester terror attack. Tourists watch in horror as armed police arrest man. Horror on the M6: Lorry driver is arrested after four. More than 24 hours on, desperate families still search. Aaron Hernandez's hell behind bars: NFL star killed. She STILL doesn't wanna hold his hand: Melania leaves. Terrorist's brother arrested: Dramatic moment armed. Bomber from a red brick semi who 'knew an ISIS. MOST READ NEWS Previous.
Princess Diana told Camilla 'I sent someone to kill you' claims Prince Harry biographer
As he turns 30, a brilliant new book by a top royal biographer exposes the inner torment of Prince Harry. On Saturday, in this exclusive Mail serialisation, Penny Junor revealed his wild binges, tensions with the Middletons and his many flirtations. Today, we uncover the toxic upbringing that shaped his life.
Harry and William were just eight and ten when they went on their first holiday without their parents in the summer of 1993, almost two years after Charles and Diana's very public separation.
Squidgygate, a 30 minute tape recording of Diana having a flirtatious conversation with her lover James Gilbey, had been followed just a few months later by Camillagate.
It was an 11 minute tape of their father's late night phone ramblings to his mistress which could be distilled to just one thought: the heir to the throne wished that he could always be with the woman he adored and mused on the possibility of turning into a Tampax to achieve it.
At the hermes bag imitation boys' boarding school, Ludgrove, every effort had been made to ensure that the most lurid headlines were kept out of sight. But there were more than 180 boys at the school aged between seven and 13 and it was impossible to keep it from every one of them. The stress that Harry and William were under is simply unimaginable.
Scroll down for video
Mother love: A hug for two year old Harry from Diana during a family holiday in Majorca in 1986 and the prince, aged four, with his downcast mother on Necker, the island privately owned by Sir Richard Branson in the British Virgin Islands
So they were buy Hermes bags replica certainly in need of a break when they went to Polzeath in Cornwall with their good friends the van Straubenzee boys, whose parents rented the same clifftop house there every year. On that first visit, Harry cut his leg on some barnacles and started to cry. The poor little boy was in agony.
His leg was bleeding profusely and the salt water was making it sting. In the absence of his mother, father or even a nanny, his Police Protection Officer, Graham Cracker, stepped in.
'Harry, pull yourself together and stop whingeing,' he said brusquely. 'It's just a scratch.' When a concerned Mrs van Straubenzee tried to intervene, he batted her away. 'He's perfectly all right.'
It's a small vignette and hardly the most traumatic of incidents. But it took place against a backdrop of appalling family misery and is indicative of a childhood in which the young Prince was left, not for the first time, bereft of every child's most basic requirement: a mother's reassuring comfort.
Those who know Prince Harry generally agree the fact he is never going to be king is a good thing.
It's always said with an affectionate laugh because people love Harry. But he's always had a wild, unpredictable streak to him, even as a little boy.
His detractors say he's not very bright and there was a time, granted, when he behaved like a mindless Hooray Henry with no self control. A time when one wondered whether the terrible combination of his mother's death and the chaos of his childhood had set him on a dangerous and perhaps irreversible downward spiral.
Wildly emotional, Diana expected little Harry to comfort her
Not only did he lose his mother at a desperately difficult age, just two weeks before his 13th birthday he lost her in a spectacular manner that made headlines around the world.
There can surely be few whose hearts were not broken by the sight of Harry as a little boy walking so bravely behind his mother's cortege.
But even before her death he'd endured the misery that comes with a broken home, warring parents and a dad who was often absent.
Like his brother, he had to endure his parents' very bitter divorce, the revelation of their affairs and even their most intimate secrets, from Diana's eating disorder and self harming hermes Birkin Bag replica to Charles's excruciatingly embarrassing phone conversations with Camilla.
It wasn't just that his mother wasn't there to comfort him when he hurt his knee. What was far worse was that she expected him to comfort her as she ricocheted from one terrifying emotional outburst to the next. Some were played out on the front pages of the national newspapers.
Others I am revealing here for the first time.
Contrary to what Diana believed, there was no campaign to discredit her following the separation. In fact, quite the reverse. Charles had given specific instructions to his staff to say and do hermes bag replica nothing to reflect badly upon the Princess.
He made it blindingly clear that no matter what Diana did or said, she would always be the mother of his children and anything that hurt the Princess would hurt them.
For all that, Diana saw conspiracies everywhere and sent anonymous, unnerving and sometimes poisonous messages to a range of people, including her Private Secretary Patrick Jephson and 28 year old Tiggy Legge Bourke, who'd been hired by Prince Charles to look after the boys following the separation. Even Camilla had threatening telephone calls from her. They were always made in the dead of the night, when Camilla was alone in her country house in the middle of nowhere.
I've sent someone to kill you,' Diana would say. 'They're outside in the garden. Look out of the window; can you see them?
'I've sent someone to kill you,' Diana would say. 'They're outside in the garden. Look out of the window; can you see them?'
The Prince picked up many of Diana's cast off staff and she drove him to distraction in many ways. Charles found conversations with her difficult and upsetting. He seemed to provide a focus for her anger; but he did care very much that she should be looked after.
He worried about her and was always there at the end of a telephone, right to the end, when things went wrong with a love affair or the children or even the Press.
As he turns 30, a brilliant new book by a top royal biographer exposes the inner torment of Prince Harry. On Saturday, in this exclusive Mail serialisation, Penny Junor revealed his wild binges, tensions with the Middletons and his many flirtations. Today, we uncover the toxic upbringing that shaped his life.
Harry and William were just eight and ten when they went on their first holiday without their parents in the summer of 1993, almost two years after Charles and Diana's very public separation.
Squidgygate, a 30 minute tape recording of Diana having a flirtatious conversation with her lover James Gilbey, had been followed just a few months later by Camillagate.
It was an 11 minute tape of their father's late night phone ramblings to his mistress which could be distilled to just one thought: the heir to the throne wished that he could always be with the woman he adored and mused on the possibility of turning into a Tampax to achieve it.
At the hermes bag imitation boys' boarding school, Ludgrove, every effort had been made to ensure that the most lurid headlines were kept out of sight. But there were more than 180 boys at the school aged between seven and 13 and it was impossible to keep it from every one of them. The stress that Harry and William were under is simply unimaginable.
Scroll down for video
Mother love: A hug for two year old Harry from Diana during a family holiday in Majorca in 1986 and the prince, aged four, with his downcast mother on Necker, the island privately owned by Sir Richard Branson in the British Virgin Islands
So they were buy Hermes bags replica certainly in need of a break when they went to Polzeath in Cornwall with their good friends the van Straubenzee boys, whose parents rented the same clifftop house there every year. On that first visit, Harry cut his leg on some barnacles and started to cry. The poor little boy was in agony.
His leg was bleeding profusely and the salt water was making it sting. In the absence of his mother, father or even a nanny, his Police Protection Officer, Graham Cracker, stepped in.
'Harry, pull yourself together and stop whingeing,' he said brusquely. 'It's just a scratch.' When a concerned Mrs van Straubenzee tried to intervene, he batted her away. 'He's perfectly all right.'
It's a small vignette and hardly the most traumatic of incidents. But it took place against a backdrop of appalling family misery and is indicative of a childhood in which the young Prince was left, not for the first time, bereft of every child's most basic requirement: a mother's reassuring comfort.
Those who know Prince Harry generally agree the fact he is never going to be king is a good thing.
It's always said with an affectionate laugh because people love Harry. But he's always had a wild, unpredictable streak to him, even as a little boy.
His detractors say he's not very bright and there was a time, granted, when he behaved like a mindless Hooray Henry with no self control. A time when one wondered whether the terrible combination of his mother's death and the chaos of his childhood had set him on a dangerous and perhaps irreversible downward spiral.
Wildly emotional, Diana expected little Harry to comfort her
Not only did he lose his mother at a desperately difficult age, just two weeks before his 13th birthday he lost her in a spectacular manner that made headlines around the world.
There can surely be few whose hearts were not broken by the sight of Harry as a little boy walking so bravely behind his mother's cortege.
But even before her death he'd endured the misery that comes with a broken home, warring parents and a dad who was often absent.
Like his brother, he had to endure his parents' very bitter divorce, the revelation of their affairs and even their most intimate secrets, from Diana's eating disorder and self harming hermes Birkin Bag replica to Charles's excruciatingly embarrassing phone conversations with Camilla.
It wasn't just that his mother wasn't there to comfort him when he hurt his knee. What was far worse was that she expected him to comfort her as she ricocheted from one terrifying emotional outburst to the next. Some were played out on the front pages of the national newspapers.
Others I am revealing here for the first time.
Contrary to what Diana believed, there was no campaign to discredit her following the separation. In fact, quite the reverse. Charles had given specific instructions to his staff to say and do hermes bag replica nothing to reflect badly upon the Princess.
He made it blindingly clear that no matter what Diana did or said, she would always be the mother of his children and anything that hurt the Princess would hurt them.
For all that, Diana saw conspiracies everywhere and sent anonymous, unnerving and sometimes poisonous messages to a range of people, including her Private Secretary Patrick Jephson and 28 year old Tiggy Legge Bourke, who'd been hired by Prince Charles to look after the boys following the separation. Even Camilla had threatening telephone calls from her. They were always made in the dead of the night, when Camilla was alone in her country house in the middle of nowhere.
I've sent someone to kill you,' Diana would say. 'They're outside in the garden. Look out of the window; can you see them?
'I've sent someone to kill you,' Diana would say. 'They're outside in the garden. Look out of the window; can you see them?'
The Prince picked up many of Diana's cast off staff and she drove him to distraction in many ways. Charles found conversations with her difficult and upsetting. He seemed to provide a focus for her anger; but he did care very much that she should be looked after.
He worried about her and was always there at the end of a telephone, right to the end, when things went wrong with a love affair or the children or even the Press.
Phil Taylor and Raymond van Barneveld meet in the Premier League on Thursday
The Premier League's visit to the First Direct Arena in Leeds for Night Three includes the meeting of great rivals Phil Taylor and Raymond van Barneveld.
The Dutchman reached the semi finals of the PDC World Championship after a 5 3 win over Phil Taylor at Alexandra Palace in December and they will be reacquainted again for a 78th time when they clash in Yorkshire on Thursday night.
Premier League leader Taylor leads the head to head meetings 56 17 and four draws between the pair, Barney's 2007 World Championship win against Taylor the pick of the bunch for Van Barneveld.
'The Power' got his revenge with a 7 1 thumping in the 2009 final and also swept to victory over the man from Den Haag with semi final wins in 2012 and 2015.
But Van Barneveld is back playing blistering darts with four hermes Constance bag replica points from his hermes bag replica opening two games and with Taylor having announced his plans to retire replica Hermes Classic Shoulder Birkin bag at the end of the season, their latest collision could unthinkably be their last ever.
WATCH: El Clasico of darts! The El Clasico of darts between Raymond van Barneveld and Phil Taylor is back in Leeds
Scottish rivals Gary Anderson and Peter Wright open a night which also features the all Dutch clash between Michael van Gerwen and Jelle Klaasen, the meeting between Adrian Lewis and James Wade and Dave Chisnall's clash with Kim Huybrechts.
"It's the Premier League, you're playing the ten best players in the world and you can't afford to miss," said Huybrechts. "When you miss you lose, it's as simple as that.
"A draw was probably a fair result last week but I've got to keep fighting."
You can see all the action from the First Direct Arena in Leeds from 7pm on Sky Sports 1 HD. Grab a NOW hermes bag black replica TV Sky Sports Day Pass and watch Premier League Darts from Leeds on Thursday night for just No contract.
The Premier League's visit to the First Direct Arena in Leeds for Night Three includes the meeting of great rivals Phil Taylor and Raymond van Barneveld.
The Dutchman reached the semi finals of the PDC World Championship after a 5 3 win over Phil Taylor at Alexandra Palace in December and they will be reacquainted again for a 78th time when they clash in Yorkshire on Thursday night.
Premier League leader Taylor leads the head to head meetings 56 17 and four draws between the pair, Barney's 2007 World Championship win against Taylor the pick of the bunch for Van Barneveld.
'The Power' got his revenge with a 7 1 thumping in the 2009 final and also swept to victory over the man from Den Haag with semi final wins in 2012 and 2015.
But Van Barneveld is back playing blistering darts with four hermes Constance bag replica points from his hermes bag replica opening two games and with Taylor having announced his plans to retire replica Hermes Classic Shoulder Birkin bag at the end of the season, their latest collision could unthinkably be their last ever.
WATCH: El Clasico of darts! The El Clasico of darts between Raymond van Barneveld and Phil Taylor is back in Leeds
Scottish rivals Gary Anderson and Peter Wright open a night which also features the all Dutch clash between Michael van Gerwen and Jelle Klaasen, the meeting between Adrian Lewis and James Wade and Dave Chisnall's clash with Kim Huybrechts.
"It's the Premier League, you're playing the ten best players in the world and you can't afford to miss," said Huybrechts. "When you miss you lose, it's as simple as that.
"A draw was probably a fair result last week but I've got to keep fighting."
You can see all the action from the First Direct Arena in Leeds from 7pm on Sky Sports 1 HD. Grab a NOW hermes bag black replica TV Sky Sports Day Pass and watch Premier League Darts from Leeds on Thursday night for just No contract.
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New Standards stay merry
This year standout newbie, Cameron Kinghorn of the R band Nooky Jones admirably filled in for Donny Hathaway in Christmas song replica van cleef alambra necklace I wanted to do since we started this, Munson said. Not so Christmas y but equally jolly, Chastity Brown unwrapped a passionate reading of Van Morrison Way Young copy van cleef & arpels clover blue bracelet Lovers Do.
Some of the most remarkable moments involved bold reinventions of older songs. Dessa previewed imitation van cleef & arpels clover necklace her upcoming Minnesota Orchestra concerts (April 14 15) with a hauntingly rearranged the Bells. Less convincingly, the Standards remade Night into a full on, Thelonious Monk like jazz epic with Wolf on vocals. Some songs just can be messed with too much.
One overall downside to the Standards messing with their formula each year: This year there simply wasn enough of them. The trio yielded often to guests even while revisiting some highlights of the prior nine years, including Adam Levy of the Honeydogs singing Johnny Cash of Fire (from the year the show was somewhat dubiously cowboy themed), and Messersmith doing his would be Sun Country Airlines anthem Ditch Christmas.
Near show end, though, the Standards thankfully took back the spotlight. Munson sang his old band Trip Shakespeare Days with the song originator, Matt Wilson, popping up for the last verse. The encore ended with Poling and Munson trading verses in their spirited original Time Next Year. Some songs just can be skipped.
This year standout newbie, Cameron Kinghorn of the R band Nooky Jones admirably filled in for Donny Hathaway in Christmas song replica van cleef alambra necklace I wanted to do since we started this, Munson said. Not so Christmas y but equally jolly, Chastity Brown unwrapped a passionate reading of Van Morrison Way Young copy van cleef & arpels clover blue bracelet Lovers Do.
Some of the most remarkable moments involved bold reinventions of older songs. Dessa previewed imitation van cleef & arpels clover necklace her upcoming Minnesota Orchestra concerts (April 14 15) with a hauntingly rearranged the Bells. Less convincingly, the Standards remade Night into a full on, Thelonious Monk like jazz epic with Wolf on vocals. Some songs just can be messed with too much.
One overall downside to the Standards messing with their formula each year: This year there simply wasn enough of them. The trio yielded often to guests even while revisiting some highlights of the prior nine years, including Adam Levy of the Honeydogs singing Johnny Cash of Fire (from the year the show was somewhat dubiously cowboy themed), and Messersmith doing his would be Sun Country Airlines anthem Ditch Christmas.
Near show end, though, the Standards thankfully took back the spotlight. Munson sang his old band Trip Shakespeare Days with the song originator, Matt Wilson, popping up for the last verse. The encore ended with Poling and Munson trading verses in their spirited original Time Next Year. Some songs just can be skipped.