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Spring Fever Returns Next Weekend
Predicting a Milder, Springier 7 Day Outlook
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" said Yogi Berra. When I was at WCCO TV I encouraged Mark Rosen to predict final scores for Minnesota's teams; I politely implored Don Shelby to forecast what would lead the newscast tomorrow. "You can dress a monkey in a sport coat to report on what already happened!" I complained, to no avail. Predicting the future is an odd career choice.
And why do meteorologists consistently over predict snow amounts? Shy of missing a tornado our biggest mortal fear is forecasting flurries, then waking up to a FOOT of flurries. People never forget a bust like that. So we overcompensate, as a profession.
Then again if I predict 2 5 inches people remember 5.
Snow tapers to flurries today; this same Alberta Clipper is about to unleash 1 2 feet of snow on the coastal northeast a full blown blizzard by Tuesday.
A higher sun angle melts most of our cosmetic snowfall by midweek as the sun returns. Expect 40s to 50F next weekend; your faith in a Minnesota spring partially restored.
Oh, the future is truly unknowable but trending milder.
Classic Nor'easter. The biggest storm of the winter (which isn't saying much it's been a very tame winter east of the Rockies) is shaping up from the Mid Atlantic into New England. later today; a alhambra style necklace replica surge of wind whipped snow spreading up the coast Tuesday, a 10 12 hour "burst" of heavy snow, ice, thunder and lightning as winds gust over 50 mph a full blown atmospheric "bomb" spinning up off the coast of Cape Cod by Tuesday evening. Travel will be shut down Tuesday into much of Wednesday with conditions improving by late week.
Blizzard Criteria for Boston. Sustained winds top 35 mph Tuesday midday and afternoon in Boston with gusts over 50 mph, creating white out conditions. If you can't get into KBOS today you may have to wait until late Wednesday or Thursday. Predicted winds: NOAA and AerisWeather.
NAM Guidance. area, where 6 12" of slush may pile up. The area forecast to be impacted by a foot or more is impressively large. Beware the Ides of March.
Praedictix Severe Weather Briefing: Issued Sunday afternoon, March 12, 2017.
Clipper to drop 2 4" Twin Cities to Madison, 1 3" for Chicago and Des Moines the storm that will fuel a big East Coast blizzard.
Biggest storm of the winter season brewing for Midatlantic, Northeast and New England Monday night into Wednesday.
50 million+ Americans under Blizzard Watch or Winter Storm Warning.
Tuesday will be the worst of the storm with heaviest snow and ice, strongest winds, lowest visibilities and most airline cancellations and treacherous driving conditions Philadelphia and New York to Boston.
Nor'easter forecast to be a "bomb" with very rapid strengthening, capable of 30 60 mph winds. I could see coastal flooding ann power outages at the height of the storm, especially Long Island to Cape Cod.
Alberta Clipper Strikes the Match. The same clipper dropping a band of 3 6" snow over southern Minnesota with potentially plowable amounts Des Moines and Madison to Rockford and Chicago will energize an area of low pressure festering off the Atlantic coast, spinning up an intense Nor'easter.
European Solution. We look at as many model solutions as we can, but often assign more weight to ECMWF, the "Euro", which has potentially superior data assimilation knock off arpels van cleef necklace (the fuel that goes into the models) and better vertical resolution. ECMWF still hints at 2 foot snowfall amounts over much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, with 12 20" from New York City to Boston. may see less, closer to 6 8", but still probably enough to plow and temporarily shut down the city. Map credit: WeatherBell.
GFS Solution. NOAA's GFS model shows the heaviest snow bands (well over 1 foot) from northern Virginia into Maryland and south Jersey, with closer to 8 12" from New York City to Boston. To be perfectly honest, at some point the inch amounts don't matter much. There isn't much difference between a foot of snow and 18" of snow, especially when whipped along by 30 40 mph winds. A white out is a white out, and that's what much of coastal New England is facing.
Most Likely Snowfall Amounts. Heaviest snows fall Monday night, possibly mixed with sleet, keeping total amounts down somewhat. and Baltimore area will be impassable Monday night into most of Tuesday. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.
Timing. Our internal model ensembles suggest a foot of snow in New York City by 1 PM on Tuesday. Graphic courtesy of Aeris Enterprise.
Philadelphia. Up to a foot is possible in the City of Brotherly Love with the worst conditions (heaviest snow/sleet and lowest visibility) coming Tuesday morning.
New York City. As much as 18" may still fall in Midtown Manhattan, but I suspect totals will be a lilttle less than that by Tuesday night. Don't be mistaken: this will be a paralyzing snowstorm for the Tri State Area, with blizzard criteria shutting down travel Tuesday.
Boston. The Nor'easter intensifies as it approaches Nantucket and Cape Cod Tuesday night; a tight pressure gradient whipping up 30 60 mph winds. In addition to blizzard conditions, minor wind damage and sporadic power outages can't be ruled out with this storm, especially over the Cape.
A True Blizzard. With sustained winds over 35 mph falling/blowing snow with visibility forecast to be under 1/4 mile (or closer to zero much of the time) this storm fits the definition of a blizzard, especially for coastal communities. Operations will be impacted Monday night into Wednesday.
Summary: Big snowstorms in March aren't that unusual, but a relatively mild, quiet February lulled many of into thinking winter was over. Not. Quite. Accelerate preparations during the daylight hours Monday, because a surge of heavy snow and ice blossoms over the Mid Atlantic Monday night and surges up the coast late Monday night fake van cleef malachite necklace into Tuesday. Snow will fall at a rate of 1 3"/hour with thunder and lightning possible, due to intense upward motion in this strengthening blizzard. Heaviest snows are over by Tuesday night but travel may not return to normal until Thursday, especially New York to Boston. Good luck out there!
Predicting a Milder, Springier 7 Day Outlook
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" said Yogi Berra. When I was at WCCO TV I encouraged Mark Rosen to predict final scores for Minnesota's teams; I politely implored Don Shelby to forecast what would lead the newscast tomorrow. "You can dress a monkey in a sport coat to report on what already happened!" I complained, to no avail. Predicting the future is an odd career choice.
And why do meteorologists consistently over predict snow amounts? Shy of missing a tornado our biggest mortal fear is forecasting flurries, then waking up to a FOOT of flurries. People never forget a bust like that. So we overcompensate, as a profession.
Then again if I predict 2 5 inches people remember 5.
Snow tapers to flurries today; this same Alberta Clipper is about to unleash 1 2 feet of snow on the coastal northeast a full blown blizzard by Tuesday.
A higher sun angle melts most of our cosmetic snowfall by midweek as the sun returns. Expect 40s to 50F next weekend; your faith in a Minnesota spring partially restored.
Oh, the future is truly unknowable but trending milder.
Classic Nor'easter. The biggest storm of the winter (which isn't saying much it's been a very tame winter east of the Rockies) is shaping up from the Mid Atlantic into New England. later today; a alhambra style necklace replica surge of wind whipped snow spreading up the coast Tuesday, a 10 12 hour "burst" of heavy snow, ice, thunder and lightning as winds gust over 50 mph a full blown atmospheric "bomb" spinning up off the coast of Cape Cod by Tuesday evening. Travel will be shut down Tuesday into much of Wednesday with conditions improving by late week.
Blizzard Criteria for Boston. Sustained winds top 35 mph Tuesday midday and afternoon in Boston with gusts over 50 mph, creating white out conditions. If you can't get into KBOS today you may have to wait until late Wednesday or Thursday. Predicted winds: NOAA and AerisWeather.
NAM Guidance. area, where 6 12" of slush may pile up. The area forecast to be impacted by a foot or more is impressively large. Beware the Ides of March.
Praedictix Severe Weather Briefing: Issued Sunday afternoon, March 12, 2017.
Clipper to drop 2 4" Twin Cities to Madison, 1 3" for Chicago and Des Moines the storm that will fuel a big East Coast blizzard.
Biggest storm of the winter season brewing for Midatlantic, Northeast and New England Monday night into Wednesday.
50 million+ Americans under Blizzard Watch or Winter Storm Warning.
Tuesday will be the worst of the storm with heaviest snow and ice, strongest winds, lowest visibilities and most airline cancellations and treacherous driving conditions Philadelphia and New York to Boston.
Nor'easter forecast to be a "bomb" with very rapid strengthening, capable of 30 60 mph winds. I could see coastal flooding ann power outages at the height of the storm, especially Long Island to Cape Cod.
Alberta Clipper Strikes the Match. The same clipper dropping a band of 3 6" snow over southern Minnesota with potentially plowable amounts Des Moines and Madison to Rockford and Chicago will energize an area of low pressure festering off the Atlantic coast, spinning up an intense Nor'easter.
European Solution. We look at as many model solutions as we can, but often assign more weight to ECMWF, the "Euro", which has potentially superior data assimilation knock off arpels van cleef necklace (the fuel that goes into the models) and better vertical resolution. ECMWF still hints at 2 foot snowfall amounts over much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, with 12 20" from New York City to Boston. may see less, closer to 6 8", but still probably enough to plow and temporarily shut down the city. Map credit: WeatherBell.
GFS Solution. NOAA's GFS model shows the heaviest snow bands (well over 1 foot) from northern Virginia into Maryland and south Jersey, with closer to 8 12" from New York City to Boston. To be perfectly honest, at some point the inch amounts don't matter much. There isn't much difference between a foot of snow and 18" of snow, especially when whipped along by 30 40 mph winds. A white out is a white out, and that's what much of coastal New England is facing.
Most Likely Snowfall Amounts. Heaviest snows fall Monday night, possibly mixed with sleet, keeping total amounts down somewhat. and Baltimore area will be impassable Monday night into most of Tuesday. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.
Timing. Our internal model ensembles suggest a foot of snow in New York City by 1 PM on Tuesday. Graphic courtesy of Aeris Enterprise.
Philadelphia. Up to a foot is possible in the City of Brotherly Love with the worst conditions (heaviest snow/sleet and lowest visibility) coming Tuesday morning.
New York City. As much as 18" may still fall in Midtown Manhattan, but I suspect totals will be a lilttle less than that by Tuesday night. Don't be mistaken: this will be a paralyzing snowstorm for the Tri State Area, with blizzard criteria shutting down travel Tuesday.
Boston. The Nor'easter intensifies as it approaches Nantucket and Cape Cod Tuesday night; a tight pressure gradient whipping up 30 60 mph winds. In addition to blizzard conditions, minor wind damage and sporadic power outages can't be ruled out with this storm, especially over the Cape.
A True Blizzard. With sustained winds over 35 mph falling/blowing snow with visibility forecast to be under 1/4 mile (or closer to zero much of the time) this storm fits the definition of a blizzard, especially for coastal communities. Operations will be impacted Monday night into Wednesday.
Summary: Big snowstorms in March aren't that unusual, but a relatively mild, quiet February lulled many of into thinking winter was over. Not. Quite. Accelerate preparations during the daylight hours Monday, because a surge of heavy snow and ice blossoms over the Mid Atlantic Monday night and surges up the coast late Monday night fake van cleef malachite necklace into Tuesday. Snow will fall at a rate of 1 3"/hour with thunder and lightning possible, due to intense upward motion in this strengthening blizzard. Heaviest snows are over by Tuesday night but travel may not return to normal until Thursday, especially New York to Boston. Good luck out there!
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