Two Major Uncertainties Encumbering GBP/USD from wisepowder's blog
Among the various uncertainties in the global financial markets,
Brexit negotiations and the US presidential election are the most
concerned. In terms of Brexit, it is reported that the UK government
will officially withdraw from negotiations with the EU if a deal isn't
achieved this week. The British government has repeatedly stressed the
seriousness of the statement, with a deadline of October 15 (this
Thursday) set by Prime Minister Johnson. While both sides have
acknowledged they are at loggerheads, Johnson indicated that the
country's trading arrangements with the EU would be like Australia's if
no deal was reached.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
Johnson's Internal Market Bill, which has passed its third reading in
the Commons, is aimed to be an incentive for the EU to make
concessions. But the Bill is a violation of the Brexit agreement signed
earlier. The EU thus intends to take Britain to the International Court
of Justice (ICJ). With that said, I believe the impasse can hardly find a
break since the UK has tried to get concessions from the EU by breaking
international law, and since the EU will be determined to sue the UK
for the unacceptable illegal means. The pound may see a wide drop under
selling pressures once the EU takes the UK to the ICJ immediately after
the British government announces its withdrawal from the negotiations
this Thursday.
In terms of the US presidential election, Trump failed to chalk up
sympathy votes by his speedy recovery from COVID-19. Besides, his
approval ratings haven't received any upside despite Vice President
Pence's average performance in the television debate against another
candidate. In this case, Trump is likely to fight back with unusual
tactics, which may raise the uncertainty in the market and sentiment. As
a result, the US dollar will have a chance to rally bolstered by the
lasting risk aversion. Conversely, the pound may be dragged down by
Brexit uncertainties. In the following week, the selling of the pound
may be enduring unless Johnson dramatically makes significant
concessions to resolve the crisis of hard Brexit. But in my opinion, to
break the deadlock is difficult because the purpose of Johnson's
Internal Market Bill is to force the EU to make concessions rather than
doing so himself.
The Wall