By many measures, the economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of growth, and a big reason is the resilient American consumer.To get more economy news, you can visit shine news official website.

The latest batch of U.S. economic data, released Thursday, shows a strong consumer and a mixed picture for manufacturing, but still better than expected. Based on the data, economists surveyed in the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update raised their forecasts for third quarter GDP by 0.2 to a median 2.1% pace of growth.

July’s retail sales, which take the pulse of consumer spending, jumped a much stronger-than-expected 0.7%, and two key business indexes for the New York and Philadelphia area showed continued expansion in August. Productivity in the second quarter grew at a better-than-expected pace of 2.3%, but industrial production was weaker, declining 0.2% in July after gaining a revised 0.2% in June.

“The U.S. is pretty strong actually. The markets are trading more off the headline risk, particularly around tariffs, than the actual fundamentals, at least from the U.S. data,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank. “The jury is still out whether the market is going to be correct here, and whether we are going to see a slowdown. We’re not seeing that in the data. Broadly, we’ve seen some slower growth, but it’s still growth. It’s waning a bit but it’s still kind of a Goldilocks scenario.”Bedikian said the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates, which should help the markets and economy, even though the data shows a fairly solid economy.

Another piece of data released Thursday was homebuilders confidence, which rose as mortgage rates fell sharply this month. Builder confidence for single-family homes hit 66 in August, 1 point higher than in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive.

Markets have been spooked by the steep decline in bond yields since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut July 31, and most recently by the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Inversion means the yield on a shorter duration security, in this case the 2-year Treasury note, moved higher than the longer duration note, or the 10-year Treasury. While the spread is no longer inverted, it still could easily move that way again. An inverted curve has been a very reliable signal of a recession.

In fairness, U.S. yields have also been moving lower as investors seek better yielding sovereign debt in the Treasury market. Yields move opposite price, and the yields on some sovereign bonds in Japan and Europe are negative. Bond yields have also been moving lower as global data from China and elsewhere has looked weak, and strategists say the bond market is reflecting both a flight to safety and fear the U.S. will fall into the weakening trends in Asia and Europe.

Chris Rupkey, MUFG’s chief financial economist, said the bond market is not reflecting reality but fear brought on by the U.S.-China trade wars.

“It’s certainly overstated. If you look at retail sales, one of the signs of a recession is three consecutive monthly declines in retail sales, and we’re seeing just the opposite,” said Rupkey. He noted that retail sales reports were weak at the end of last year and beginning of this year before recovering.

Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, had expected the consumer to look strong in July, and her forecast for 0.6% gain was nearly double the sales increase expected in the consensus forecast. One of the big drivers of the gain was Amazon’s Prime Day, which triggered lots of promotional activity at other retailers.