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At the heart of investment analysis is business understanding and probabilistic thinking. At the heart of investment deals are odds and reverse thinking. At the heart of the wait is a commitment to abilities and respect for common sense. In the long run, good deals can not save poor analytics, and good analytics can be ruined by bad ones. In contrast, however, the hardest part is learning to wait (whether holding or holding a coin). All investment results are posterior, but medium and long-term odds and odds for each investment are predictable. Excellent performance is only the result, the reason that led to this result is the essence. Efforts, gifts, and luck are probably the three most important reasons for your efforts: working hard in the right direction will give you a lower limit of success. Talent determines the efficiency of growth and the cost of time, and luck will always insist on the right person. Surprisingly successful investors are not so much calculating and choice as it is that they know better to give up and adhere to; not to be able to listen to the eyes of all directions, it is better to say that is always focused on focus; not so much gifted and talented knowledge Abnormal, it is better to say that it is more profound to see their own limitations, clearly know that the market can and can not be. The so-called investment in God is not that they have obtained the mysterious apocalypse, but only those who are loyal to and always practicing compound interest know that the sustainability of compound interest conflicts with the profitability (similar to ROE) With the long cycle can not have both, of which Buffett's nearly 25% for the past 50 years as the human limit (those who see only Gauliful time does not look at Buffett's victory over Buffett, the basic investment has not touched the hair). It is inevitable to return to the mean after high compound interest, of which there are both objective and subjective factors. The best scenario in the investment career is: initial high compound interest, after which a steady but very strong ongoing investment is particularly apt to indulge in a 'perfect system of construction' at some stage, but this is not the same as a lifelong commitment to manufacturing perpetual motion machines Big. The more complex the system, the more indulged in the thinking of the details, in fact, the farther away from the essence of investment. The longer you invest, the more you can understand that the most dependable is the method of being simple and simple but hitting the essence. The most important thing to consider is the big pattern and the strategic success. To an investor, the more dangerous one is early Have the feeling of 'the truth is in hold'. If at the same time boring or victorious and vocal opposition to slightly different people, it basically shows no room for improvement. Of course, investment is an unshakeable principle, but there is no 'sacred model' for the weight of different elements of investment. Of course, this is not to say that they are prejudicial, but to maintain the openness of thinking. Is this actually a kind of ability to concentrate or decentralize? If from a particular stage of the point of view, depending on the fish (elasticity) and bear's paw (safety) which is more important to you. Concentrating on the long-term normality seems to represent a high degree of confidence in the company's mining and analysis. But then I thought, if so confident, it should be able to tap more excellent subject and decentralized ah. Of course, this is essentially a degree of concern. Ultimately, there are many elements involved in making a moderate investment decision such as the matching between research depth and position benefits, investment flexibility and risk diversification. However, if there are three key points in refining the conclusion,
1, the overall situation. It is clear where you are in the entire market cycle, is the fear, greed or numbness;
2, the value of judgment. Betting should aim at the object of future superiority category and be friends with time;
3, poor expectations. Clarify the assumptions and valuation implications of value judgments and stay sensitive when there is a high degree of anticipation. Investing in the myths is a battle of the day, but the reality is actually very skinny, even Buffett admits to making mistakes . However, why do some people make mistakes when they make mistakes and do not cause serious losses? The difference is that:
1, whether subjectively admit that they will make mistakes mortal?
2, objectively good at using margin of safety to protect themselves?
3, whether to spread the risk and use good odds to make up? Therefore, the loss depends on the wrong preprocessing. From the formula of PB = PEROE, when ROE = 8%, PB is only 2.8 times, even if PE is 35 times. If the company can continue to grow, ROE increased to 25%, then when PE is 25, PB actually increased to 6.25 times. Thus, PE reflects the expected premium, while PB reflects the asset premium. It is generally understood that the trend of the ROE itself is a core element of the valuation, and the biggest mystery of the valuation is not to the extent that the index Simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, but rather forward-looking judgments on the company's future profitability, is the company's business stage accurate qualitative. The so-called fuzzy right, in fact, is the specific PE and PB can be relatively fuzzy (or targeted analysis), but the trend of the ROE judgment must be correct ROE is the embodiment of the company's profitability, high and sustainable ROE is The embodiment of the company's strong competitive advantage. So for such a good corporate market in most cases will inevitably give a capital premium, which is higher PB. If a high ROE company low PB, you have to think about why? Possible: 1, the market is a fool; 2, the essence of the company is a strong cycle and the turning point in the current peak earnings. This paradox happens by chance, but in the case of recurring situations, high ROE and low PB are intrinsically contradictory. In the area of investment, 'dancing in shackles' may or may not be a kind of restraint but rather a protection mechanism. For example, the most typical example of 'making only 20 holes in a lifetime' is another example of the most common fixed-investment index fund. It seems that these behaviors are highly restricted, but often found after prolonged 'shackles' actually van cleef vintage alhambra necklace replica turned into gold bracelets. This is actually the vast majority of 'free action' always run away their own virtual disk reasons can continue to bring new expectations of the company are often more popular in the market. But here are two situations: one is the new expectations are focused on the main industry to enhance or upgrade the industry chain, and the main expectations are 'said to do,' continued to be confirmed, this is good or even a great company's good seedlings; the other The new expectation of a large span and like to follow the trend, and always with new expectations to cover up the unrealized expectations, which is not reliable or even old seed companies on the relative relationship between the company and the price, with static Although it is not the best policy to buy a company at a higher price, it is not the worst. In particular, if the company continues to get cheaper in the future, it can turn into a good investment. The fear is that when buying is very cheap, but the more you take the more expensive, indicating that the logic of buying from the roots wrong. In this case, the most important thing is the ability to quickly correct mistakes, or wait for the error and other real-time costs are necklace van cleef fake high people want to cry high-performance business class at first glance it is difficult to have obvious barriers, but this efficient operation may Quantitative change to qualitative change, and thus form a real scale or technology and customer stickiness and other aspects of the high barriers, but all of these confirmations are often approaching maturity. For such companies, the most important thing in the junior middle school phase should be to grasp three points: 1, long-term demand expansion; 2, focused and strong industry ambitions; 3, The worsening of the balance sheet is qualitatively not a good thing, but the reasons for its deterioration require a split look. One is accompanied by a marked decline in income growth and abnormal accounts receivable and inventory over the same period; the other is the rapid growth of income, but the need to advance or insufficient economies of scale led to a substantial increase in debt ratio and cash flow deterioration. The former often foreshadowed the relaxation of credit to the limit. The latter end of the income side will also face even worse results. The latter, on the contrary, is due to the outburst of demand exceeding the digestibility of current capital. Today, we see a sentence: 'What is the limitation? The emperor picked the gold pole. 'It is too place!
Followed by the above topic, if you want to learn the value of successful investment, do not go back Buffett formula every day; if you want to start a business do not see every success, you most need to collect is how we failed! A person who fails to study various failure cases can not succeed. Those who just tell you every day, 'So and so is good, you have done a certain success will be a new success,' is not a nerd is a liar bull market, we are talking about high elasticity, several rounds of stock market disaster and began to pay attention to 'how to avoid net worth Fluctuation '. In fact, the retracement of the net value itself is an accessory to the market volatility. Completely refusing to pull back is equal to fighting against investment. But the same volatility is quite different in different contexts: the tendency in a bubble environment should be to refuse volatility, underdevelopment in contrast to embrace volatility, and in most agnostic environments you need to be calm and tolerant of fluctuations The book reads: 'The mediocre general, in the face of complex environment will give yourself a list of piles of problems and question marks, burdened with the North can not find the real talent, then cut the Gordian knot, from the seemingly normal situation A glimpse of the essence and the key, and resolute action. 'This is actually a similar investment decision-making, excellent investors, both for the market or for the company are good at grasping the main contradiction and can see the details of the whole and eventually form the logical decision support point '.
At the heart of investment analysis is business understanding and probabilistic thinking. At the heart of investment deals are odds and reverse thinking. At the heart of the wait is a commitment to abilities and respect for common sense. In the long run, good deals can not save poor analytics, and good analytics can be ruined by bad ones. In contrast, however, the hardest part is learning to wait (whether holding or holding a coin). All investment results are posterior, but medium and long-term odds and odds for each investment are predictable. Excellent performance is only the result, the reason that led to this result is the essence. Efforts, gifts, and luck are probably the three most important reasons for your efforts: working hard in the right direction will give you a lower limit of success. Talent determines the efficiency of growth and the cost of time, and luck will always insist on the right person. Surprisingly successful investors are not so much calculating and choice as it is that they know better to give up and adhere to; not to be able to listen to the eyes of all directions, it is better to say that is always focused on focus; not so much gifted and talented knowledge Abnormal, it is better to say that it is more profound to see their own limitations, clearly know that the market can and can not be. The so-called investment in God is not that they have obtained the mysterious apocalypse, but only those who are loyal to and always practicing compound interest know that the sustainability of compound interest conflicts with the profitability (similar to ROE) With the long cycle can not have both, of which Buffett's nearly 25% for the past 50 years as the human limit (those who see only Gauliful time does not look at Buffett's victory over Buffett, the basic investment has not touched the hair). It is inevitable to return to the mean after high compound interest, of which there are both objective and subjective factors. The best scenario in the investment career is: initial high compound interest, after which a steady but very strong ongoing investment is particularly apt to indulge in a 'perfect system of construction' at some stage, but this is not the same as a lifelong commitment to manufacturing perpetual motion machines Big. The more complex the system, the more indulged in the thinking of the details, in fact, the farther away from the essence of investment. The longer you invest, the more you can understand that the most dependable is the method of being simple and simple but hitting the essence. The most important thing to consider is the big pattern and the strategic success. To an investor, the more dangerous one is early Have the feeling of 'the truth is in hold'. If at the same time boring or victorious and vocal opposition to slightly different people, it basically shows no room for improvement. Of course, investment is an unshakeable principle, but there is no 'sacred model' for the weight of different elements of investment. Of course, this is not to say that they are prejudicial, but to maintain the openness of thinking. Is this actually a kind of ability to concentrate or decentralize? If from a particular stage of the point of view, depending on the fish (elasticity) and bear's paw (safety) which is more important to you. Concentrating on the long-term normality seems to represent a high degree of confidence in the company's mining and analysis. But then I thought, if so confident, it should be able to tap more excellent subject and decentralized ah. Of course, this is essentially a degree of concern. Ultimately, there are many elements involved in making a moderate investment decision such as the matching between research depth and position benefits, investment flexibility and risk diversification. However, if there are three key points in refining the conclusion,
1, the overall situation. It is clear where you are in the entire market cycle, is the fear, greed or numbness;
2, the value of judgment. Betting should aim at the object of future superiority category and be friends with time;
3, poor expectations. Clarify the assumptions and valuation implications of value judgments and stay sensitive when there is a high degree of anticipation. Investing in the myths is a battle of the day, but the reality is actually very skinny, even Buffett admits to making mistakes . However, why do some people make mistakes when they make mistakes and do not cause serious losses? The difference is that:
1, whether subjectively admit that they will make mistakes mortal?
2, objectively good at using margin of safety to protect themselves?
3, whether to spread the risk and use good odds to make up? Therefore, the loss depends on the wrong preprocessing. From the formula of PB = PEROE, when ROE = 8%, PB is only 2.8 times, even if PE is 35 times. If the company can continue to grow, ROE increased to 25%, then when PE is 25, PB actually increased to 6.25 times. Thus, PE reflects the expected premium, while PB reflects the asset premium. It is generally understood that the trend of the ROE itself is a core element of the valuation, and the biggest mystery of the valuation is not to the extent that the index Simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, but rather forward-looking judgments on the company's future profitability, is the company's business stage accurate qualitative. The so-called fuzzy right, in fact, is the specific PE and PB can be relatively fuzzy (or targeted analysis), but the trend of the ROE judgment must be correct ROE is the embodiment of the company's profitability, high and sustainable ROE is The embodiment of the company's strong competitive advantage. So for such a good corporate market in most cases will inevitably give a capital premium, which is higher PB. If a high ROE company low PB, you have to think about why? Possible: 1, the market is a fool; 2, the essence of the company is a strong cycle and the turning point in the current peak earnings. This paradox happens by chance, but in the case of recurring situations, high ROE and low PB are intrinsically contradictory. In the area of investment, 'dancing in shackles' may or may not be a kind of restraint but rather a protection mechanism. For example, the most typical example of 'making only 20 holes in a lifetime' is another example of the most common fixed-investment index fund. It seems that these behaviors are highly restricted, but often found after prolonged 'shackles' actually van cleef vintage alhambra necklace replica turned into gold bracelets. This is actually the vast majority of 'free action' always run away their own virtual disk reasons can continue to bring new expectations of the company are often more popular in the market. But here are two situations: one is the new expectations are focused on the main industry to enhance or upgrade the industry chain, and the main expectations are 'said to do,' continued to be confirmed, this is good or even a great company's good seedlings; the other The new expectation of a large span and like to follow the trend, and always with new expectations to cover up the unrealized expectations, which is not reliable or even old seed companies on the relative relationship between the company and the price, with static Although it is not the best policy to buy a company at a higher price, it is not the worst. In particular, if the company continues to get cheaper in the future, it can turn into a good investment. The fear is that when buying is very cheap, but the more you take the more expensive, indicating that the logic of buying from the roots wrong. In this case, the most important thing is the ability to quickly correct mistakes, or wait for the error and other real-time costs are necklace van cleef fake high people want to cry high-performance business class at first glance it is difficult to have obvious barriers, but this efficient operation may Quantitative change to qualitative change, and thus form a real scale or technology and customer stickiness and other aspects of the high barriers, but all of these confirmations are often approaching maturity. For such companies, the most important thing in the junior middle school phase should be to grasp three points: 1, long-term demand expansion; 2, focused and strong industry ambitions; 3, The worsening of the balance sheet is qualitatively not a good thing, but the reasons for its deterioration require a split look. One is accompanied by a marked decline in income growth and abnormal accounts receivable and inventory over the same period; the other is the rapid growth of income, but the need to advance or insufficient economies of scale led to a substantial increase in debt ratio and cash flow deterioration. The former often foreshadowed the relaxation of credit to the limit. The latter end of the income side will also face even worse results. The latter, on the contrary, is due to the outburst of demand exceeding the digestibility of current capital. Today, we see a sentence: 'What is the limitation? The emperor picked the gold pole. 'It is too place!
Followed by the above topic, if you want to learn the value of successful investment, do not go back Buffett formula every day; if you want to start a business do not see every success, you most need to collect is how we failed! A person who fails to study various failure cases can not succeed. Those who just tell you every day, 'So and so is good, you have done a certain success will be a new success,' is not a nerd is a liar bull market, we are talking about high elasticity, several rounds of stock market disaster and began to pay attention to 'how to avoid net worth Fluctuation '. In fact, the retracement of the net value itself is an accessory to the market volatility. Completely refusing to pull back is equal to fighting against investment. But the same volatility is quite different in different contexts: the tendency in a bubble environment should be to refuse volatility, underdevelopment in contrast to embrace volatility, and in most agnostic environments you need to be calm and tolerant of fluctuations The book reads: 'The mediocre general, in the face of complex environment will give yourself a list of piles of problems and question marks, burdened with the North can not find the real talent, then cut the Gordian knot, from the seemingly normal situation A glimpse of the essence and the key, and resolute action. 'This is actually a similar investment decision-making, excellent investors, both for the market or for the company are good at grasping the main contradiction and can see the details of the whole and eventually form the logical decision support point '.
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